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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Man City

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Chelsea

T T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 54%

77%

31%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 53%

60%

46%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,6

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,19 xG 1,25

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 1. · Chelsea 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	35	27	4	4	+61	+24.4	85
2	Arsenal	37	25	6	6	+40	+10.4	81
3	Newcastle	36	19	12	5	+35	+17.1	69
4	Man United	36	21	6	9	+11	+5.6	69
5	Liverpool	37	19	9	9	+28	+13.3	66
6	Brighton	36	18	7	11	+20	+19.6	61
7	Aston Villa	37	17	7	13	+4	-0.9	58
8	Tottenham	37	17	6	14	+4	+0.1	57
9	Brentford	37	14	14	9	+11	+5.0	56
10	Fulham	37	15	7	15	+3	-9.3	52
11	Crystal Palace	37	11	11	15	-9	-2.8	44
12	Chelsea	35	11	10	14	-5	+2.3	43
13	Wolves	37	11	8	18	-22	-13.0	41
14	West Ham	37	11	7	19	-12	-6.0	40
15	Bournemouth	37	11	6	20	-33	-7.5	39
16	Nott'm Forest	37	9	10	18	-30	-16.3	37
17	Everton	37	7	12	18	-24	-10.0	33
18	Leeds	37	7	10	20	-27	-13.4	31
19	Leicester	36	8	6	22	-18	-3.3	30
20	Southampton	37	6	6	25	-37	-15.4	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	16	1	1	+42	+16.1	49
2	Liverpool	19	13	5	1	+29	+12.5	44
3	Arsenal	18	13	3	2	+23	+9.9	42
4	Man United	17	13	3	1	+22	+11.2	42
5	Newcastle	18	11	5	2	+22	+13.6	38
6	Tottenham	19	12	1	6	+12	+3.9	37
7	Aston Villa	18	11	2	5	+11	+2.9	35
8	Brentford	18	9	7	2	+16	+7.9	34
9	Brighton	18	10	3	5	+16	+15.2	33
10	Nott'm Forest	19	8	6	5	+3	-8.3	30
11	Wolves	19	9	3	7	-1	-0.8	30
12	Fulham	19	8	5	6	+2	-3.9	29
13	West Ham	19	8	4	7	+2	+2.7	28
14	Crystal Palace	18	7	6	5	-2	-2.2	27
15	Chelsea	18	6	6	6	+1	+3.9	24
16	Leeds	18	5	7	6	-8	-2.3	22
17	Bournemouth	19	6	4	9	-8	-2.6	22
18	Everton	18	5	3	10	-12	-1.1	18
19	Leicester	18	4	4	10	-5	-2.4	16
20	Southampton	18	2	4	12	-18	-6.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	19	12	3	4	+17	+0.6	39
2	Man City	17	11	3	3	+19	+8.3	36
3	Newcastle	18	8	7	3	+13	+3.5	31
4	Brighton	18	8	4	6	+4	+4.4	28
5	Man United	19	8	3	8	-11	-5.5	27
6	Fulham	18	7	2	9	+1	-5.5	23
7	Aston Villa	19	6	5	8	-7	-3.8	23
8	Liverpool	18	6	4	8	-1	+0.8	22
9	Brentford	19	5	7	7	-5	-2.9	22
10	Tottenham	18	5	5	8	-8	-3.8	20
11	Chelsea	17	5	4	8	-6	-1.6	19
12	Crystal Palace	19	4	5	10	-7	-0.6	17
13	Bournemouth	18	5	2	11	-25	-4.9	17
14	Everton	19	2	9	8	-12	-8.9	15
15	Leicester	18	4	2	12	-13	-0.9	14
16	Southampton	19	4	2	13	-19	-9.2	14
17	West Ham	18	3	3	12	-14	-8.7	12
18	Wolves	18	2	5	11	-21	-12.2	11
19	Leeds	19	2	3	14	-19	-11.1	9
20	Nott'm Forest	18	1	4	13	-33	-8.0	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.