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Premier League
Referee: D Coote
Brighton
S T S U T
4–1
Full-time
Luton
U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Luton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,0
Scored
1,7
1,2
Conceded
2,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,01 xG 1,48
71% Possession 29%
27 Shots 9
12 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
6 Corners 7
2 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Brighton Luton
Pervis Estupiñán 🟨
7′
1–0 S. March ⚽
K. Mitoma
36′
Kaoru Mitoma 🟨
43′
Half-time 1–0
51′
🟨 Mads Juel Andersen
59′
🟨 Issa Kaboré
64′
🔁 A. Doughty
↦ I. Kaboré
64′
🔁 J. Brown
↦ E. Adebayo
2–0 João Pedro ⚽
71′
B. Gilmour 🔁
↦ M. Dahoud
74′
S. Adingra 🔁
↦ S. March
74′
76′
🔁 C. Ogbene
↦ M. Andersen
E. Ferguson 🔁
↦ D. Welbeck
78′
79′
ℹ️ Carlton Morris
VAR: Penalty confirmed
J. Veltman 🔁
↦ J. Milner
79′
81′
⚽ C. Morris 2–1
3–1 S. Adingra ⚽
85′
J. Enciso 🔁
↦ João Pedro
88′
88′
🔁 L. Berry
↦ T. Chong
88′
🔁 C. Woodrow
↦ P. Mpanzu
4–1 E. Ferguson ⚽
P. Estupiñán
95′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Brighton

4-2-3-1
23 J. Steele G
6 J. Milner D
29 J. van Hecke D
5 L. Dunk D
30 P. Estupiñán D
13 P. Groß M
8 M. Dahoud M
7 S. March M
9 João Pedro M
22 K. Mitoma M
18 D. Welbeck F
Bench (9)
11 B. Gilmour
24 S. Adingra
28 E. Ferguson
34 J. Veltman
10 J. Enciso
17 S. Alzate
3 Igor Julio
1 B. Verbruggen
40 F. Buonanotte

Coach: R. De Zerbi

Luton

3-5-2
24 T. Kaminski G
5 M. Andersen D
4 T. Lockyer D
29 A. Bell D
12 I. Kaboré M
17 P. Mpanzu M
13 M. Nakamba M
14 T. Chong M
26 R. Giles M
9 C. Morris F
11 E. Adebayo F
Bench (9)
45 A. Doughty
19 J. Brown
7 C. Ogbene
8 L. Berry
10 C. Woodrow
21 J. McAtee
1 J. Shea
40 A. Francis-Clarke
22 A. Campbell

Coach: R. Edwards

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,33
🔒
U
5,52
🔒
B
9,61
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,61
🔒
U2,5
2,34
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Coote · 118 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.