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La Liga

Referee: Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos

Celta

U T S T U

0–1

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

0,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,24 xG 1,36

37% Possession 63%

13 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 16. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.2	6
2	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Valencia	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.4	6
4	Girona	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
5	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.1	4
6	Barcelona	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.2	4
7	Betis	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
8	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.8	3
9	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.3	3
10	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.3	3
11	Sociedad	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.5	3
12	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.4	3
13	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.9	3
14	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.8	2
15	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
16	Celta	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.4	1
17	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.6	1
18	Sevilla	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.6	0
19	Granada	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.4	0
20	Almeria	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Girona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
2	Ath Madrid	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.5	3
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.3	3
4	Alaves	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
5	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
6	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Sociedad	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
8	Las Palmas	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
9	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
11	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
12	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
13	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
14	Ath Bilbao	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.5	0
15	Celta	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.0	0
16	Osasuna	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
17	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
18	Almeria	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.2	6
2	Vallecano	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.0	3
4	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Valencia	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
8	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
9	Girona	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
10	Mallorca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
12	Barcelona	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
13	Sociedad	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
15	Las Palmas	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
16	Alaves	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
17	Granada	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
18	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.3	0
19	Getafe	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.