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Primeira Liga

Referee: José Bessa

Estrela

U S T T T

2–1

Full-time

Estoril

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/6 matches

Win Ø 35%

20%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

50%

Both score Ø 55%

60%

50%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,5

4,5

Scored

0,0

2,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,54 xG 1,17

56% Possession 44%

15 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 15. · Estoril 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.8	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
4	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.1	6
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
6	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	+0.8	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.4	3
9	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
10	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.3	3
11	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.6	3
12	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
13	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
14	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
15	Estrela	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.9	0
16	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.6	0
17	Farense	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.6	3
2	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.6	3
3	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	+3.0	3
4	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
12	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
13	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
14	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
15	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
16	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
17	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0
18	Farense	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
2	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
12	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
13	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
14	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
15	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.6	0
16	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.0	0
17	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-5	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.