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La Liga

Referee: Juan Pulido

Ath Bilbao

S S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Almeria

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Almeria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%

17 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

11 Corners 2

5 Offside 6

17 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 4. · Almeria 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Barcelona	6	5	1	0	+17	16
3	Betis	6	5	0	1	+6	15
4	Ath Bilbao	6	4	1	1	+8	13
5	Osasuna	6	4	0	2	+2	12
6	Villarreal	6	3	2	1	+8	11
7	Ath Madrid	6	3	1	2	+4	10
8	Sociedad	6	3	1	2	-1	10
9	Valencia	6	3	0	3	+5	9
10	Mallorca	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Girona	6	2	1	3	+0	7
12	Vallecano	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Celta	6	2	1	3	-5	7
14	Getafe	6	2	1	3	-6	7
15	Sevilla	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Almeria	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Espanol	6	1	1	4	-5	4
18	Valladolid	6	1	1	4	-8	4
19	Cadiz	6	1	0	5	-13	3
20	Elche	6	0	1	5	-14	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Betis	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Valencia	4	3	0	1	+7	9
3	Osasuna	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+7	7
5	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	6
7	Girona	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+4	4
9	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Mallorca	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Getafe	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Ath Madrid	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Almeria	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Valladolid	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Elche	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Espanol	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Cadiz	3	0	0	3	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+4	7
5	Ath Bilbao	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Sociedad	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Vallecano	4	1	1	2	+0	4
8	Espanol	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Sevilla	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Mallorca	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Betis	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Getafe	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Cadiz	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Celta	3	1	0	2	-5	3
16	Girona	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Almeria	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Valladolid	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Elche	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.