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La Liga
Referee: Mario Melero
Elche
S T U T T
1–4
Full-time
Ath Bilbao
T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elche Ath Bilbao
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 17%
33%
0%
Average goals
2,5
1,5
Scored
0,7
1,2
Conceded
1,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,8
This season — La Liga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
50%
25%
Both score Ø 13%
25%
0%
Average goals
2,5
1,5
Scored
0,3
1,3
Conceded
2,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–4

47% Possession 53%
9 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 8
3 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 5
15 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Elche 18. · Ath Bilbao 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 5 5 0 0 +10 15
2 Barcelona 5 4 1 0 +14 13
3 Villarreal 4 3 1 0 +9 10
4 Ath Madrid 5 3 1 1 +5 10
5 Betis 4 3 0 1 +4 9
6 Osasuna 4 3 0 1 +3 9
7 Ath Bilbao 4 2 1 1 +4 7
8 Girona 5 2 1 2 +1 7
9 Vallecano 5 2 1 2 +0 7
10 Sociedad 4 2 1 1 -1 7
11 Celta 5 2 1 2 -2 7
12 Valencia 5 2 0 3 +2 6
13 Mallorca 5 1 2 2 -2 5
14 Almeria 4 1 1 2 -1 4
15 Espanol 5 1 1 3 -4 4
16 Sevilla 5 1 1 3 -4 4
17 Valladolid 5 1 1 3 -7 4
18 Elche 4 0 1 3 -8 1
19 Getafe 4 0 1 3 -9 1
20 Cadiz 5 0 0 5 -14 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Elche Ath Bilbao
9′
N. Fernández Mercau 1–0
own goal
12′
ℹ️ Nico Williams
VAR: Penalty confirmed
14′
Oihan Sancet 1–1
22′
Nico Williams 1–2
De Marcos
Omar Mascarell 🟨
30′
E. Ponce 🔁
↦ Omar Mascarell
38′
Enzo Roco 🟨
44′
44′
Álex Berenguer 1–3
Half-time 1–3
Fidel 🔁
↦ Álex Collado
46′
John Nwankwo 🔁
↦ E. Roco
46′
2–3 E. Ponce
L. Boyé
59′
64′
🔁 Oier Zarraga
↦ Nico Williams
64′
🔁 Raúl García
↦ Oihan Sancet
Josan Ferrández 🔁
↦ Pol Lirola
66′
Pedro Bigas 🟨
69′
Raúl Guti 🔁
↦ Gumbau
72′
72′
🔁 Mikel Vesga
↦ Dani García
78′
🔁 Gorka Guruzeta
↦ Muniain
78′
🔁 Jon Morcillo
↦ Iñaki Williams
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Elche

4-2-3-1
13 Edgar Badia G
24 Pol Lirola D
3 E. Roco D
6 Bigas D
22 N. Fernández Mercau D
21 Omar Mascarell M
20 Gumbau M
15 Álex Collado M
12 Domingos Quina M
10 Pere Milla M
9 L. Boyé F
Bench (12)
19 E. Ponce
16 Fidel
26 John Nwankwo
17 Josan Ferrández
8 Raúl Guti
7 J. Pastore
2 F. Fernández
1 A. Werner
14 H. Palacios
11 Tete Morente
18 Roger Martí
23 Clerc

Coach: Francisco

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 Unai Simón G
18 De Marcos D
3 Dani Vivian D
4 Íñigo Martínez D
15 Lekue D
8 Oihan Sancet M
14 Dani García M
11 Nico Williams M
10 Muniain M
7 Álex Berenguer M
9 Iñaki Williams F
Bench (11)
19 Oier Zarraga
22 Raúl García
6 Mikel Vesga
12 Gorka Guruzeta
2 Jon Morcillo
16 Unai Vencedor
35 Ander Iru
31 Aitor Paredes
21 Capa
13 Julen Agirrezabala
20 Asier Villalibre

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,15
U
3,47
B ✓
1,95
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,21
U2,5
1,67
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Mario Melero · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.