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La Liga
Referee: Pablo González Fuertes
Las Palmas
S S S U T
1–2
Full-time
Barcelona
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Las Palmas Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
33%
83%
Average goals
1,7
3,7
Scored
1,0
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 50%
39%
61%
Points per game
1,4
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
22%
56%
Both score Ø 50%
39%
61%
Average goals
1,7
3,1
Scored
0,8
1,9
Conceded
0,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,67 xG 2,51
45% Possession 55%
12 Shots 15
3 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 6
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 10
2 Offside 14
14 Free kicks against 5
5 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Las Palmas 10. · Barcelona 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Real Madrid 19 15 3 1 +29 +15.5 48
2 Girona 19 15 3 1 +22 +9.0 48
3 Ath Bilbao 19 11 5 3 +17 +15.8 38
4 Ath Madrid 19 12 2 5 +16 +10.6 38
5 Barcelona 18 11 5 2 +13 +22.6 38
6 Sociedad 19 8 8 3 +11 +1.7 32
7 Betis 19 6 10 3 +1 -1.5 28
8 Getafe 19 6 8 5 -1 -4.4 26
9 Valencia 19 7 5 7 -1 -0.6 26
10 Las Palmas 18 7 4 7 +0 -9.1 25
11 Vallecano 19 5 8 6 -6 -3.6 23
12 Osasuna 19 6 4 9 -7 -3.8 22
13 Villarreal 19 5 4 10 -11 -7.5 19
14 Mallorca 19 3 9 7 -6 -4.0 18
15 Alaves 19 4 5 10 -10 +1.0 17
16 Sevilla 19 3 7 9 -4 -7.8 16
17 Celta 19 3 7 9 -9 -1.0 16
18 Cadiz 19 2 9 8 -12 -12.4 15
19 Granada 19 2 5 12 -18 -10.9 11
20 Almeria 19 0 5 14 -24 -9.4 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Las Palmas Barcelona
11′
🔁 Andreas Christensen
↦ João Cancelo
1–0 Munir El Haddadi
Sandro Ramírez
12′
20′
🟨 Sergi Roberto
Half-time 1–1
55′
Ferran Torres 1–1
Sergi Roberto
Alex Suárez 🟨
58′
Marc Cardona 🔁
↦ Munir El Haddadi
59′
Pejiño 🔁
↦ Sandro Ramírez
68′
Enzo Loiodice 🔁
↦ Alberto Moleiro
68′
72′
🔁 João Félix
↦ Robert Lewandowski
72′
🔁 Lamine Yamal
↦ Raphinha
78′
🔁 Fermín López
↦ Sergi Roberto
78′
🔁 Vitor Roque
↦ Ferran Torres
Saúl Coco 🟨
79′
81′
🟨 Lamine Yamal
Daley Sinkgraven 🔁
↦ Alex Suárez
82′
Javier Muñoz 🟨
88′
Sergi Cardona 🟨
89′
Daley Sinkgraven 🟥
91′
Kirian Rodríguez 🟨
92′
93′
İlkay Gündoğan 1–2
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Las Palmas

4-3-3
13 Álvaro Valles G
4 Alex Suárez D
23 Saúl Coco D
15 Mika Mármol D
3 Sergi Cardona D
5 Javier Muñoz M
8 Máximo Perrone M
20 Kirian Rodríguez M
17 Munir El Haddadi F
9 Sandro Ramírez F
10 Alberto Moleiro F
Bench (12)
19 Marc Cardona
24 Pejiño
12 Enzo Loiodice
18 Daley Sinkgraven
35 Alex Gonzalez
1 Aarón Escandell
31 Juanma Herzog
7 Cristian Herrera
29 Iñaki González
22 Omenuke Mfulu
2 Marvin Park
16 Sory Kaba

Coach: García Pimienta

Barcelona

4-3-3
13 Iñaki Peña G
2 João Cancelo D
4 Ronald Araújo D
23 Jules Koundé D
3 Alejandro Balde D
21 Frenkie de Jong M
22 İlkay Gündoğan M
20 Sergi Roberto M
11 Raphinha F
9 Robert Lewandowski F
7 Ferran Torres F
Bench (10)
15 Andreas Christensen
14 João Félix
27 Lamine Yamal
32 Fermín López
19 Vitor Roque
31 Diego Kochen
26 Ander Astralaga
39 Héctor Fort
33 Pau Cubarsí
18 Oriol Romeu

Coach: Xavi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,68
U
4,33
B ✓
1,57
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,71
U2,5
2,12
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Pablo González Fuertes · 10 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
26,0 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.