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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera
Ath Bilbao
U S S U S
1–0
Full-time
Las Palmas
T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Las Palmas
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
1,8
Scored
2,5
1,2
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 47%
53%
41%
Points per game
1,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
53%
24%
Both score Ø 41%
41%
41%
Average goals
3,1
1,7
Scored
1,9
0,9
Conceded
1,1
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

3,56 xG 0,33
51% Possession 49%
19 Shots 5
10 Shots on target 1
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
5 Corners 2
3 Offside 4
12 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Bilbao 5. · Las Palmas 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Girona 17 14 2 1 +21 +8.7 44
2 Real Madrid 17 13 3 1 +27 +14.4 42
3 Barcelona 18 11 5 2 +13 +22.6 38
4 Ath Madrid 17 11 2 4 +16 +10.0 35
5 Ath Bilbao 17 9 5 3 +14 +11.9 32
6 Sociedad 17 8 6 3 +11 +1.9 30
7 Betis 17 6 9 2 +2 -0.1 27
8 Getafe 18 6 8 4 +1 -2.9 26
9 Las Palmas 17 7 4 6 +1 -5.9 25
10 Valencia 18 6 5 7 -3 -2.6 23
11 Vallecano 18 4 8 6 -8 -5.2 20
12 Osasuna 17 5 4 8 -7 -5.4 19
13 Sevilla 17 3 7 7 -1 -6.4 16
14 Alaves 17 4 4 9 -9 +1.3 16
15 Villarreal 17 4 4 9 -10 -6.6 16
16 Mallorca 17 2 9 6 -6 -2.3 15
17 Cadiz 17 2 8 7 -10 -10.8 14
18 Celta 17 2 7 8 -9 -1.1 13
19 Granada 18 1 5 12 -20 -13.1 8
20 Almeria 18 0 5 13 -23 -8.4 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Bilbao Las Palmas
31′
ℹ️ Marvin Park
VAR: Penalty cancelled
38′
🟨 Julian Araujo
Gorka Guruzeta
penalty missed
40′
Half-time 0–0
Álex Berenguer 🔁
↦ Gorka Guruzeta
56′
Mikel Vesga 🔁
↦ Ander Herrera
56′
59′
🔁 Sandro Ramírez
↦ Sory Kaba
Unai Gómez 🔁
↦ Oihan Sancet
66′
68′
🟨 Máximo Perrone
78′
🔁 Omenuke Mfulu
↦ Marvin Park
Mikel Jauregizar 🔁
↦ Beñat Prados
86′
Raúl García 🔁
↦ Nico Williams
86′
90′
🔁 Alex Suárez
↦ Munir El Haddadi
1–0 Unai Gómez
94′
Iñaki Williams 🟨
97′
97′
🟨 Sergi Cardona
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 Unai Simón G
15 Íñigo Lekue D
3 Daniel Vivian D
4 Aitor Paredes D
17 Yuri Berchiche D
21 Ander Herrera M
24 Beñat Prados M
9 Iñaki Williams M
8 Oihan Sancet M
11 Nico Williams M
12 Gorka Guruzeta F
Bench (12)
7 Álex Berenguer
6 Mikel Vesga
30 Unai Gómez
22 Raúl García
31 Mikel Jauregizar
13 Julen Agirrezabala
19 Imanol García de Albéniz
32 Hugo Rincón
23 Peru Nolaskoain Esnal
10 Iker Muniain
20 Asier Villalibre
29 Malcom Ares

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Las Palmas

4-5-1
13 Álvaro Valles G
28 Julian Araujo D
23 Saúl Coco D
15 Mika Mármol D
3 Sergi Cardona D
2 Marvin Park M
5 Javier Muñoz M
8 Máximo Perrone M
12 Enzo Loiodice M
17 Munir El Haddadi M
16 Sory Kaba F
Bench (12)
9 Sandro Ramírez
22 Omenuke Mfulu
4 Alex Suárez
1 Aarón Escandell
35 Alex Gonzalez
6 Eric Curbelo
18 Daley Sinkgraven
29 Iñaki González
11 Benito Ramírez
24 Pejiño
7 Cristian Herrera
19 Marc Cardona

Coach: García Pimienta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,39
U
4,88
B
8,30
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,79
U2,5 ✓
2,06
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Juan Martinez Munuera · 112 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.