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La Liga
Referee: Mateo Busquets
Barcelona
U S S S S
3–0
Full-time
Osasuna
U U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Osasuna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
83%
0%
Points per game
2,7
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
4,2
2,7
Scored
3,0
1,0
Conceded
1,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 48%
70%
26%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 61%
74%
48%
Both score Ø 65%
63%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,7
Scored
2,8
1,2
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,19 xG 0,40
74% Possession 26%
19 Shots 4
5 Shots on target 0
5 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 4
2 Offside 4
7 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Osasuna 14.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 27 19 3 5 +48 +33.0 60
2 Real Madrid 28 18 6 4 +32 +24.1 60
3 Ath Madrid 28 16 8 4 +24 +19.8 56
4 Ath Bilbao 28 14 10 4 +22 +17.5 52
5 Villarreal 27 12 8 7 +11 +18.0 44
6 Betis 28 12 8 8 +3 +9.8 44
7 Mallorca 28 11 7 10 -6 +1.7 40
8 Celta 28 11 6 11 +0 +9.2 39
9 Vallecano 28 9 10 9 +0 +2.0 37
10 Getafe 28 9 9 10 +2 -7.3 36
11 Sevilla 28 9 9 10 -5 -7.9 36
12 Sociedad 28 10 5 13 -5 -0.4 35
13 Girona 28 9 7 12 -5 -2.0 34
14 Osasuna 27 7 12 8 -6 -6.6 33
15 Espanol 27 7 7 13 -13 -23.7 28
16 Valencia 28 6 10 12 -15 -8.0 28
17 Alaves 28 6 9 13 -10 -3.1 27
18 Leganes 28 6 9 13 -17 -23.6 27
19 Las Palmas 28 6 7 15 -15 -26.3 25
20 Valladolid 28 4 4 20 -45 -26.1 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Barcelona Osasuna
1–0 Ferran Torres
Alejandro Balde
11′
18′
🟨 Sergio Herrera
2–0 Dani Olmo
21′
Fermín López 🔁
↦ Dani Olmo
28′
34′
🔁 Rubén García
↦ Iker Muñoz
38′
🟨 Alejandro Catena
Eric García 🟨
40′
Half-time 2–0
Pablo Torre 🔁
↦ F. de Jong
46′
46′
🔁 E. Boyomo
↦ José Arnáiz
50′
🟨 Juan Cruz
61′
🔁 Moi Gómez
↦ Aimar Oroz
61′
🔁 A. Budimir
↦ Raúl García
R. Lewandowski 🔁
↦ Ferran Torres
68′
3–0 R. Lewandowski
Fermín López
77′
Gerard Martín 🔁
↦ Alejandro Balde
83′
Pau Víctor 🔁
↦ Pedri
84′
84′
🔁 Rubén Peña
↦ Jesús Areso
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Barcelona

4-3-3
25 W. Szczęsny G
23 J. Koundé D
24 Eric García D
5 Iñigo Martínez D
3 Alejandro Balde D
20 Dani Olmo M
21 F. de Jong M
8 Pedri M
19 Lamine Yamal F
7 Ferran Torres F
6 Gavi F
Bench (12)
16 Fermín López
14 Pablo Torre
9 R. Lewandowski
35 Gerard Martín
18 Pau Víctor
38 Alexis Olmedo
31 D. Kochen
13 Iñaki Peña
2 Pau Cubarsí
4 R. Araujo
10 Ansu Fati
32 Héctor Fort

Coach: H. Flick

Osasuna

4-4-2
1 Sergio Herrera G
12 Jesús Areso D
24 Catena D
5 Jorge Herrando D
3 Juan Cruz D
7 Moncayola M
8 Pablo Ibáñez M
18 Iker Muñoz M
20 José Arnáiz M
9 Raúl García F
10 Aimar Oroz F
Bench (12)
14 Rubén García
22 E. Boyomo
16 Moi Gómez
17 A. Budimir
15 Rubén Peña
11 Kike Barja
37 Jon García
13 Aitor Fernández
29 Asier Osambela
31 Pablo Valencia
4 Unai García
23 Abel Bretones

Coach: Vicente Moreno

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,28
U
6,34
B
8,82
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,33
U2,5
3,25
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Mateo Busquets · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,44 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.