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La Liga

Referee: Ricardo De Burgos

Ath Madrid

U S T T S

2–4

Full-time

Barcelona

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,8

2,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 27/26 matches

Win Ø 64%

59%

69%

Points per game

2,1

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

37%

73%

Both score Ø 53%

44%

62%

Average goals

2,3

3,7

Scored

1,6

2,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,36 xG 1,26

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

6 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Barcelona 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	28	18	6	4	+32	+24.1	60
2	Barcelona	26	18	3	5	+46	+33.1	57
3	Ath Madrid	27	16	8	3	+26	+19.7	56
4	Ath Bilbao	28	14	10	4	+22	+17.5	52
5	Villarreal	27	12	8	7	+11	+18.0	44
6	Betis	28	12	8	8	+3	+9.8	44
7	Mallorca	28	11	7	10	-6	+1.7	40
8	Celta	28	11	6	11	+0	+9.2	39
9	Vallecano	28	9	10	9	+0	+2.0	37
10	Getafe	28	9	9	10	+2	-7.3	36
11	Sevilla	28	9	9	10	-5	-7.9	36
12	Sociedad	28	10	5	13	-5	-0.4	35
13	Girona	28	9	7	12	-5	-2.0	34
14	Osasuna	27	7	12	8	-6	-6.6	33
15	Espanol	27	7	7	13	-13	-23.7	28
16	Valencia	28	6	10	12	-15	-8.0	28
17	Alaves	28	6	9	13	-10	-3.1	27
18	Leganes	28	6	9	13	-17	-23.6	27
19	Las Palmas	28	6	7	15	-15	-26.3	25
20	Valladolid	28	4	4	20	-45	-26.1	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	11	1	1	+21	+19.5	34
2	Ath Madrid	14	10	4	0	+17	+18.3	34
3	Ath Bilbao	14	8	5	1	+18	+12.5	29
4	Celta	14	9	2	3	+10	+6.0	29
5	Barcelona	12	9	0	3	+24	+23.5	27
6	Betis	14	7	5	2	+7	+14.6	26
7	Osasuna	15	6	6	3	+4	+2.9	24
8	Espanol	14	6	5	3	+3	-6.1	23
9	Mallorca	15	6	5	4	+0	-0.1	23
10	Girona	14	6	3	5	+4	+5.8	21
11	Valencia	14	6	3	5	+2	+2.4	21
12	Villarreal	13	5	5	3	+8	+8.9	20
13	Vallecano	14	5	5	4	+1	+8.5	20
14	Sociedad	14	6	2	6	+1	+4.2	20
15	Getafe	14	4	7	3	+3	+2.3	19
16	Sevilla	14	5	4	5	-4	-1.0	19
17	Leganes	14	5	2	7	-7	-8.8	17
18	Alaves	13	4	4	5	-2	-0.2	16
19	Las Palmas	14	3	5	6	-4	-6.3	14
20	Valladolid	14	3	4	7	-13	-7.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	14	9	3	2	+22	+9.6	30
2	Real Madrid	15	7	5	3	+11	+4.6	26
3	Villarreal	14	7	3	4	+3	+9.1	24
4	Ath Bilbao	14	6	5	3	+4	+5.0	23
5	Ath Madrid	13	6	4	3	+9	+1.4	22
6	Betis	14	5	3	6	-4	-4.9	18
7	Sevilla	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.9	17
8	Getafe	14	5	2	7	-1	-9.7	17
9	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.6	17
10	Mallorca	13	5	2	6	-6	+1.8	17
11	Sociedad	14	4	3	7	-6	-4.6	15
12	Girona	14	3	4	7	-9	-7.8	13
13	Alaves	15	2	5	8	-8	-2.9	11
14	Las Palmas	14	3	2	9	-11	-20.0	11
15	Celta	14	2	4	8	-10	+3.2	10
16	Leganes	14	1	7	6	-10	-14.7	10
17	Osasuna	12	1	6	5	-10	-9.4	9
18	Valencia	14	0	7	7	-17	-10.3	7
19	Espanol	13	1	2	10	-16	-17.7	5
20	Valladolid	14	1	0	13	-32	-19.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.