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La Liga
Referee: Mario Melero
Osasuna
S T U U T
3–3
Full-time
Valencia
S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Osasuna Valencia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,8
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
1,2
2,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 24%
28%
20%
Points per game
1,3
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
44%
48%
Both score Ø 60%
64%
56%
Average goals
2,5
2,6
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,4
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–2

1,52 xG 1,73
51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 5
0 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 3
4 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 7
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Osasuna 13. · Valencia 19.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 26 18 3 5 +46 +33.1 57
2 Ath Madrid 26 16 8 2 +27 +19.9 56
3 Real Madrid 26 16 6 4 +30 +24.2 54
4 Ath Bilbao 26 13 9 4 +21 +16.7 48
5 Villarreal 25 12 8 5 +13 +15.6 44
6 Betis 26 10 8 8 +1 +6.5 38
7 Vallecano 26 9 9 8 +1 +2.6 36
8 Mallorca 26 10 6 10 -7 -0.8 36
9 Sociedad 26 10 4 12 -4 -0.6 34
10 Celta 26 9 6 11 -2 +8.4 33
11 Sevilla 26 8 9 9 -5 -6.9 33
12 Girona 26 9 5 12 -5 -3.1 32
13 Osasuna 25 7 11 7 -5 -7.5 32
14 Getafe 26 7 9 10 +0 -6.4 30
15 Espanol 25 7 6 12 -12 -20.0 27
16 Leganes 26 6 9 11 -15 -22.0 27
17 Las Palmas 26 6 6 14 -14 -24.9 24
18 Alaves 26 5 8 13 -11 -1.0 23
19 Valencia 25 5 8 12 -16 -9.4 23
20 Valladolid 26 4 4 18 -43 -24.2 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Osasuna Valencia
14′
Diego López 0–1
Luis Rioja
15′
ℹ️ Diego López
VAR: Goal confirmed
1–1 Aimar Oroz
A. Budimir
26′
32′
U. Sadiq 1–2
Javi Guerra
2–2 Aimar Oroz
Jesús Areso
39′
3–2 A. Budimir
45′
Half-time 3–2
Kike Barja 🔁
↦ Aimar Oroz
55′
56′
🔁 Rafa Mir
↦ Iván Jaime
67′
🔁 André Almeida
↦ Javi Guerra
67′
🔁 Fran Pérez
↦ José Gayà
68′
🟨 Luis Rioja
Juan Cruz 🔁
↦ Abel Bretones
72′
Iker Muñoz 🔁
↦ Moncayola
72′
Moi Gómez 🔁
↦ Bryan Zaragoza
73′
Lucas Torró 🟨
77′
Iker Muñoz 🟨
80′
80′
🔁 Sergi Canós
↦ Diego López
80′
🔁 Pepelu
↦ E. Barrenechea
Rubén Peña 🔁
↦ Jesús Areso
83′
87′
U. Sadiq 3–3
Sergi Canós
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Osasuna

4-2-3-1
1 Sergio Herrera G
12 Jesús Areso D
22 E. Boyomo D
24 Catena D
23 Abel Bretones D
7 Moncayola M
6 Lucas Torró M
14 Rubén García M
10 Aimar Oroz M
19 Bryan Zaragoza M
17 A. Budimir F
Bench (12)
11 Kike Barja
3 Juan Cruz
18 Iker Muñoz
16 Moi Gómez
15 Rubén Peña
4 Unai García
5 Jorge Herrando
9 Raúl García
20 José Arnáiz
13 Aitor Fernández
31 Pablo Valencia
8 Pablo Ibáñez

Coach: Vicente Moreno

Valencia

4-2-3-1
25 G. Mamardashvili G
20 D. Foulquier D
15 César Tárrega D
3 Cristhian Mosquera D
14 José Gayà D
8 Javi Guerra M
5 E. Barrenechea M
22 Luis Rioja M
17 Iván Jaime M
16 Diego López M
12 U. Sadiq F
Bench (12)
11 Rafa Mir
10 André Almeida
23 Fran Pérez
7 Sergi Canós
18 Pepelu
24 Yarek Gąsiorowski
13 S. Dimitrievski
19 M. Aarons
6 Hugo Guillamón
4 M. Diakhaby
21 Jesús Vázquez
1 Jaume Doménech

Coach: Carlos Corberan

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,31
U ✓
3,16
B
3,32
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,37
U2,5
1,60
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Mario Melero · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
27,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.