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La Liga

Referee: I Galech

Ath Madrid

T S U S T

0–1

Full-time

Celta

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 46%

56%

35%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

47%

Both score Ø 59%

53%

65%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,18 xG 0,13

56% Possession 44%

20 Shots 3

4 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 0

2 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Celta 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	29	1	4	+58	+41.0	88
2	Real Madrid	34	24	5	5	+39	+35.2	77
3	Villarreal	34	21	5	8	+25	+11.7	68
4	Ath Madrid	34	19	6	9	+21	+10.1	63
5	Betis	34	13	14	7	+11	+9.3	53
6	Celta	34	12	11	11	+4	+3.4	47
7	Getafe	34	13	5	16	-8	-12.7	44
8	Ath Bilbao	34	13	5	16	-10	+7.4	44
9	Sociedad	34	11	10	13	-1	-1.2	43
10	Osasuna	35	11	9	15	-3	-5.1	42
11	Vallecano	34	10	12	12	-6	+2.8	42
12	Sevilla	35	11	7	17	-13	-16.9	40
13	Elche	35	9	12	14	-8	-19.4	39
14	Valencia	34	10	9	15	-13	+2.3	39
15	Espanol	35	10	9	16	-15	-6.0	39
16	Mallorca	34	10	8	16	-9	-19.1	38
17	Girona	34	9	11	14	-15	-10.3	38
18	Alaves	35	9	10	16	-13	-2.7	37
19	Levante	35	9	9	17	-16	-10.3	36
20	Oviedo	34	6	10	18	-28	-19.6	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	17	0	0	+43	+26.4	51
2	Villarreal	17	14	1	2	+26	+10.8	43
3	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
4	Ath Madrid	17	14	1	2	+22	+17.8	43
5	Elche	18	8	8	2	+10	-2.7	32
6	Osasuna	17	9	5	3	+9	+7.9	32
7	Betis	17	8	6	3	+13	+9.3	30
8	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+7	+0.3	29
9	Ath Bilbao	17	9	2	6	+2	+10.7	29
10	Sociedad	17	8	4	5	+7	+7.2	28
11	Vallecano	17	6	9	2	+7	+9.9	27
12	Valencia	17	7	5	5	+2	+9.5	26
13	Sevilla	18	7	4	7	+0	-1.4	25
14	Alaves	17	6	6	5	+0	+2.1	24
15	Levante	18	6	5	7	-4	-0.1	23
16	Espanol	17	6	4	7	-5	-0.1	22
17	Girona	17	6	4	7	-6	-6.1	22
18	Getafe	17	6	3	8	-1	-3.2	21
19	Celta	17	5	5	7	+1	+4.1	20
20	Oviedo	17	4	6	7	-8	-9.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	1	4	+15	+14.6	37
2	Real Madrid	17	10	4	3	+14	+12.0	34
3	Celta	17	7	6	4	+3	-0.7	27
4	Villarreal	17	7	4	6	-1	+0.9	25
5	Betis	17	5	8	4	-2	+0.1	23
6	Getafe	17	7	2	8	-7	-9.5	23
7	Ath Madrid	17	5	5	7	-1	-7.6	20
8	Espanol	18	4	5	9	-10	-5.9	17
9	Girona	17	3	7	7	-9	-4.2	16
10	Sociedad	17	3	6	8	-8	-8.5	15
11	Ath Bilbao	17	4	3	10	-12	-3.3	15
12	Sevilla	17	4	3	10	-13	-15.4	15
13	Vallecano	17	4	3	10	-13	-7.1	15
14	Levante	17	3	4	10	-12	-10.2	13
15	Alaves	18	3	4	11	-13	-4.8	13
16	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-15	-7.2	13
17	Osasuna	18	2	4	12	-12	-13.0	10
18	Oviedo	17	2	4	11	-20	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	17	2	3	12	-16	-19.5	9
20	Elche	17	1	4	12	-18	-16.7	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.