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La Liga

Referee: J Manzano

Ath Madrid

S T T U T

3–2

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 46%

53%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

47%

Both score Ø 52%

53%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,09 xG 0,80

54% Possession 46%

6 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Ath Bilbao 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	33	28	1	4	+57	+40.7	85
2	Real Madrid	33	23	5	5	+37	+34.3	74
3	Villarreal	32	19	5	8	+20	+10.5	62
4	Ath Madrid	32	17	6	9	+18	+7.9	57
5	Betis	33	12	14	7	+8	+9.4	50
6	Celta	32	11	11	10	+3	+3.7	44
7	Getafe	33	13	5	15	-6	-13.2	44
8	Sociedad	32	11	9	12	+0	+0.6	42
9	Ath Bilbao	32	12	5	15	-11	+8.3	41
10	Osasuna	32	10	9	13	-2	-3.2	39
11	Valencia	33	10	9	14	-11	+3.2	39
12	Vallecano	32	9	11	12	-8	+3.2	38
13	Espanol	32	10	8	14	-12	-3.9	38
14	Girona	33	9	11	13	-14	-10.9	38
15	Alaves	33	9	9	15	-11	-2.9	36
16	Elche	32	8	11	13	-7	-18.8	35
17	Mallorca	33	9	8	16	-10	-18.5	35
18	Sevilla	32	9	7	16	-14	-18.3	34
19	Levante	32	8	8	16	-13	-11.7	32
20	Oviedo	32	6	10	16	-24	-20.3	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	17	0	0	+43	+26.4	51
2	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+25	+23.1	43
3	Ath Madrid	16	13	1	2	+21	+16.5	40
4	Villarreal	15	12	1	2	+21	+9.6	37
5	Elche	17	8	7	2	+10	-2.0	31
6	Osasuna	15	8	5	2	+9	+7.2	29
7	Mallorca	17	8	5	4	+7	+0.3	29
8	Ath Bilbao	17	9	2	6	+2	+10.7	29
9	Sociedad	17	8	4	5	+7	+7.2	28
10	Betis	16	7	6	3	+10	+9.3	27
11	Vallecano	16	6	8	2	+7	+9.8	26
12	Valencia	16	7	5	4	+4	+10.4	26
13	Alaves	16	6	6	4	+2	+2.6	24
14	Girona	16	6	4	6	-5	-6.7	22
15	Getafe	16	6	3	7	+1	-3.8	21
16	Espanol	15	6	3	6	-3	+1.2	21
17	Levante	17	5	5	7	-5	-2.6	20
18	Sevilla	16	5	4	7	-2	-3.9	19
19	Oviedo	16	4	6	6	-7	-9.7	18
20	Celta	16	4	5	7	-1	+4.7	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	11	1	4	+14	+14.3	34
2	Real Madrid	16	9	4	3	+12	+11.1	31
3	Celta	16	7	6	3	+4	-1.0	27
4	Villarreal	17	7	4	6	-1	+0.9	25
5	Betis	17	5	8	4	-2	+0.1	23
6	Getafe	17	7	2	8	-7	-9.5	23
7	Ath Madrid	16	4	5	7	-3	-8.6	17
8	Espanol	17	4	5	8	-9	-5.1	17
9	Girona	17	3	7	7	-9	-4.2	16
10	Sevilla	16	4	3	9	-12	-14.4	15
11	Sociedad	15	3	5	7	-7	-6.7	14
12	Valencia	17	3	4	10	-15	-7.2	13
13	Levante	15	3	3	9	-8	-9.0	12
14	Alaves	17	3	3	11	-13	-5.5	12
15	Ath Bilbao	15	3	3	9	-13	-2.4	12
16	Vallecano	16	3	3	10	-15	-6.6	12
17	Osasuna	17	2	4	11	-11	-10.4	10
18	Oviedo	16	2	4	10	-17	-10.5	10
19	Mallorca	16	1	3	12	-17	-18.8	6
20	Elche	15	0	4	11	-17	-16.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.