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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Atalanta

S T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Spal

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,3

Scored

3,0

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 35%

53%

16%

Points per game

1,8

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

79%

37%

Both score Ø 55%

68%

42%

Average goals

3,9

2,2

Scored

2,6

0,6

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 7

10 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 5. · Spal 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	20	16	3	1	+20	51
2	Inter	20	14	5	1	+24	47
3	Lazio	19	14	3	2	+28	45
4	Roma	20	11	5	4	+15	38
5	Atalanta	19	10	5	4	+23	35
6	Cagliari	20	8	6	6	+4	30
7	Parma	20	8	4	8	+0	28
8	Milan	20	8	4	8	-5	28
9	Torino	20	8	3	9	-2	27
10	Verona	19	7	5	7	+0	26
11	Napoli	20	6	6	8	+0	24
12	Bologna	20	6	6	8	-3	24
13	Fiorentina	20	6	6	8	-4	24
14	Udinese	20	7	3	10	-12	24
15	Sassuolo	20	6	4	10	-3	22
16	Sampdoria	20	5	4	11	-13	19
17	Lecce	20	3	7	10	-16	16
18	Brescia	20	4	3	13	-19	15
19	Genoa	20	3	5	12	-20	14
20	Spal	19	3	3	13	-17	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	10	9	1	0	+14	28
2	Lazio	10	8	2	0	+22	26
3	Inter	10	6	3	1	+11	21
4	Roma	10	5	2	3	+4	17
5	Udinese	10	5	2	3	+0	17
6	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+14	16
7	Parma	10	5	1	4	+5	16
8	Cagliari	10	5	1	4	+4	16
9	Verona	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Torino	10	4	2	4	-2	14
11	Sassuolo	10	4	1	5	+2	13
12	Bologna	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Milan	10	3	4	3	-2	13
14	Sampdoria	10	3	3	4	-1	12
15	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	-3	12
16	Napoli	10	3	2	5	-2	11
17	Genoa	10	3	1	6	-4	10
18	Spal	9	2	2	5	-5	8
19	Lecce	10	0	5	5	-7	5
20	Brescia	10	1	2	7	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	10	8	2	0	+13	26
2	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+6	23
3	Roma	10	6	3	1	+11	21
4	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
5	Lazio	9	6	1	2	+6	19
6	Milan	10	5	0	5	-3	15
7	Cagliari	10	3	5	2	+0	14
8	Napoli	10	3	4	3	+2	13
9	Torino	10	4	1	5	+0	13
10	Fiorentina	10	3	3	4	-1	12
11	Parma	10	3	3	4	-5	12
12	Verona	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Bologna	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Lecce	10	3	2	5	-9	11
15	Brescia	10	3	1	6	-9	10
16	Sassuolo	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Udinese	10	2	1	7	-12	7
18	Sampdoria	10	2	1	7	-12	7
19	Spal	10	1	1	8	-12	4
20	Genoa	10	0	4	6	-16	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.