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Serie A

Referee: P Valeri

Lecce

S S S T T

1–4

Full-time

Milan

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

2,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

23%

38%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

69%

42%

Both score Ø 56%

62%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,4

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 11

3 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 18. · Milan 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	26	20	3	3	+26	63
2	Lazio	26	19	5	2	+37	62
3	Inter	26	17	6	3	+26	57
4	Atalanta	26	15	6	5	+39	51
5	Roma	26	13	6	7	+16	45
6	Napoli	26	11	6	9	+5	39
7	Verona	26	10	8	8	+4	38
8	Parma	26	10	6	10	+1	36
9	Milan	26	10	6	10	-6	36
10	Bologna	26	9	7	10	-4	34
11	Cagliari	26	8	8	10	+0	32
12	Sassuolo	26	9	5	12	-1	32
13	Fiorentina	26	7	9	10	-4	30
14	Udinese	26	7	7	12	-16	28
15	Torino	26	8	4	14	-17	28
16	Sampdoria	26	7	5	14	-17	26
17	Genoa	26	6	7	13	-16	25
18	Lecce	26	6	7	13	-22	25
19	Spal	26	5	3	18	-24	18
20	Brescia	26	4	4	18	-27	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	12	1	0	+21	37
2	Lazio	14	11	3	0	+29	36
3	Inter	13	8	4	1	+14	28
4	Verona	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Atalanta	13	7	2	4	+17	23
6	Roma	13	6	3	4	+7	21
7	Sassuolo	13	6	1	6	+6	19
8	Parma	13	6	1	6	+5	19
9	Udinese	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Cagliari	13	5	2	6	+2	17
11	Napoli	13	5	2	6	-1	17
12	Bologna	13	4	5	4	-2	17
13	Milan	13	4	5	4	-2	17
14	Sampdoria	14	4	4	6	-6	16
15	Torino	13	4	3	6	-11	15
16	Fiorentina	13	3	5	5	-4	14
17	Genoa	12	4	1	7	-4	13
18	Lecce	13	2	5	6	-7	11
19	Spal	12	2	2	8	-9	8
20	Brescia	13	1	3	9	-12	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Atalanta	13	8	4	1	+22	28
3	Lazio	12	8	2	2	+8	26
4	Juventus	13	8	2	3	+5	26
5	Roma	13	7	3	3	+9	24
6	Napoli	13	6	4	3	+6	22
7	Milan	13	6	1	6	-4	19
8	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-2	17
9	Parma	13	4	5	4	-4	17
10	Fiorentina	13	4	4	5	+0	16
11	Cagliari	13	3	6	4	-2	15
12	Verona	13	3	5	5	-2	14
13	Lecce	13	4	2	7	-15	14
14	Torino	13	4	1	8	-6	13
15	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-7	13
16	Genoa	14	2	6	6	-12	12
17	Sampdoria	12	3	1	8	-11	10
18	Brescia	13	3	1	9	-15	10
19	Spal	14	3	1	10	-15	10
20	Udinese	13	2	3	8	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.