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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Man City

T S S T S

5–0

Full-time

Burnley

U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

1,7

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 52%

66%

38%

Points per game

2,1

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

72%

55%

Both score Ø 45%

52%

38%

Average goals

3,5

2,6

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

71% Possession 29%

19 Shots 1

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Burnley 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	30	27	2	1	+45	83
2	Man City	29	19	3	7	+40	60
3	Leicester	30	16	6	8	+30	54
4	Chelsea	30	15	6	9	+13	51
5	Man United	30	12	10	8	+14	46
6	Wolves	30	11	13	6	+9	46
7	Sheffield United	30	11	11	8	+2	44
8	Tottenham	30	11	9	10	+7	42
9	Crystal Palace	30	11	9	10	-4	42
10	Arsenal	30	9	13	8	+0	40
11	Burnley	29	11	6	12	-6	39
12	Everton	30	10	8	12	-9	38
13	Newcastle	30	10	8	12	-13	38
14	Southampton	30	11	4	15	-14	37
15	Brighton	30	7	11	12	-7	32
16	Watford	30	6	10	14	-17	28
17	West Ham	30	7	6	17	-17	27
18	Bournemouth	30	7	6	17	-20	27
19	Aston Villa	30	7	5	18	-23	26
20	Norwich	30	5	6	19	-30	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	15	0	0	+28	45
2	Man City	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Leicester	15	9	3	3	+15	30
4	Man United	15	8	5	2	+17	29
5	Tottenham	15	8	3	4	+12	27
6	Arsenal	15	7	5	3	+6	26
7	Everton	15	7	5	3	+4	26
8	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+7	24
9	Sheffield United	15	7	3	5	+4	24
10	Newcastle	15	6	6	3	+3	24
11	Burnley	15	7	2	6	+1	23
12	Wolves	15	5	7	3	+4	22
13	Crystal Palace	15	6	4	5	-1	22
14	Brighton	15	5	6	4	+3	21
15	Watford	15	4	6	5	-1	18
16	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-7	18
17	Bournemouth	15	4	5	6	-6	17
18	West Ham	15	4	3	8	-5	15
19	Norwich	15	4	3	8	-10	15
20	Southampton	15	4	2	9	-15	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	2	1	+17	38
2	Man City	15	9	1	5	+16	28
3	Chelsea	15	8	3	4	+6	27
4	Leicester	15	7	3	5	+15	24
5	Wolves	15	6	6	3	+5	24
6	Southampton	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Sheffield United	15	4	8	3	-2	20
8	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-3	20
9	Man United	15	4	5	6	-3	17
10	Burnley	14	4	4	6	-7	16
11	Tottenham	15	3	6	6	-5	15
12	Arsenal	15	2	8	5	-6	14
13	Newcastle	15	4	2	9	-16	14
14	West Ham	15	3	3	9	-12	12
15	Everton	15	3	3	9	-13	12
16	Brighton	15	2	5	8	-10	11
17	Bournemouth	15	3	1	11	-14	10
18	Watford	15	2	4	9	-16	10
19	Aston Villa	15	2	2	11	-16	8
20	Norwich	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.