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Serie A

Referee: G Manganiello

Spezia

U S T S T

2–2

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,7

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

52% Possession 48%

6 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 15. · Fiorentina 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Sassuolo	4	3	1	0	+7	10
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+11	9
4	Atalanta	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Inter	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Verona	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Sampdoria	4	2	0	2	+0	6
8	Benevento	3	2	0	1	-1	6
9	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	5
10	Roma	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	-4	4
12	Bologna	4	1	0	3	-1	3
13	Fiorentina	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Spezia	3	1	0	2	-4	3
16	Parma	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Torino	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Udinese	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+9	6
2	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Verona	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Inter	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Parma	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Benevento	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Crotone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Lazio	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Torino	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Spezia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
20	Udinese	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sassuolo	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+2	6
4	Inter	2	1	1	0	+3	4
5	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Benevento	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Spezia	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Sampdoria	2	1	0	1	-2	3
10	Roma	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Juventus	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-3	1
13	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Verona	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Torino	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Parma	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Crotone	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.