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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Spezia

S U T T S

2–0

Full-time

Milan

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 48%

24%

71%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 74%

76%

71%

Both score Ø 62%

67%

57%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,3

2,1

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 5

18 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spezia 16. · Milan 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	21	15	4	2	+22	49
2	Inter	21	14	5	2	+28	47
3	Juventus	21	12	6	3	+22	42
4	Napoli	21	13	1	7	+24	40
5	Roma	21	12	4	5	+9	40
6	Lazio	21	12	4	5	+9	40
7	Atalanta	21	10	7	4	+19	37
8	Sassuolo	21	8	7	6	+2	31
9	Verona	21	8	6	7	+3	30
10	Sampdoria	21	8	3	10	-1	27
11	Genoa	22	6	7	9	-7	25
12	Udinese	21	6	6	9	-5	24
13	Bologna	22	6	6	10	-7	24
14	Benevento	22	6	6	10	-17	24
15	Fiorentina	21	5	7	9	-12	22
16	Spezia	21	5	6	10	-10	21
17	Torino	22	2	11	9	-9	17
18	Cagliari	21	3	6	12	-15	15
19	Parma	21	2	7	12	-27	13
20	Crotone	21	3	3	15	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	11	8	3	0	+15	27
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+16	25
3	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+18	22
5	Milan	11	6	3	2	+9	21
6	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+3	20
7	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+10	18
8	Verona	10	5	2	3	+5	17
9	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+0	16
10	Bologna	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Genoa	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Sampdoria	10	4	1	5	+1	13
13	Sassuolo	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Crotone	10	3	1	6	-7	10
16	Benevento	11	2	4	5	-9	10
17	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7
19	Parma	11	1	4	6	-15	7
20	Spezia	10	1	3	6	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	10	9	1	0	+13	28
2	Inter	11	6	4	1	+12	22
3	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+6	20
4	Juventus	11	5	4	2	+10	19
5	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+6	18
7	Sassuolo	11	5	3	3	+2	18
8	Spezia	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Sampdoria	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Benevento	11	4	2	5	-8	14
11	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Roma	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Genoa	11	2	5	4	-6	11
15	Torino	11	2	4	5	-4	10
16	Bologna	11	2	3	6	-6	9
17	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-9	6
18	Parma	10	1	3	6	-12	6
19	Fiorentina	10	1	3	6	-12	6
20	Crotone	11	0	2	9	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.