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Serie A
Referee: L Massimi
Venezia
S T T U U
1–0
Full-time
Fiorentina
S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Venezia Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
0,8
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,2
This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 36%
14%
57%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 65%
43%
86%
Both score Ø 72%
57%
86%
Average goals
2,4
3,0
Scored
0,7
1,4
Conceded
1,7
1,6
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%
4 Shots 10
2 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 5
6 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Venezia 19. · Fiorentina 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 8 8 0 0 +16 24
2 Milan 8 7 1 0 +11 22
3 Inter 8 5 2 1 +12 17
4 Roma 8 5 0 3 +7 15
5 Lazio 8 4 2 2 +5 14
6 Atalanta 8 4 2 2 +4 14
7 Juventus 8 4 2 2 +2 14
8 Fiorentina 7 4 0 3 -1 12
9 Bologna 8 3 3 2 -2 12
10 Udinese 8 2 3 3 -2 9
11 Empoli 8 3 0 5 -6 9
12 Torino 8 2 2 4 +1 8
13 Verona 8 2 2 4 +0 8
14 Sassuolo 8 2 2 4 -2 8
15 Spezia 8 2 1 5 -10 7
16 Sampdoria 8 1 3 4 -5 6
17 Genoa 8 1 3 4 -6 6
18 Cagliari 8 1 3 4 -6 6
19 Venezia 7 1 2 4 -7 5
20 Salernitana 8 1 1 6 -11 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Venezia Fiorentina
24′
🟨 Sofyan Amrabat
28′
🟨 Álvaro Odriozola
1–0 M. Aramu
T. Henry
36′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Benassi
↦ Odriozola
D. Okereke 🔁
↦ D. Johnsen
50′
56′
🔁 N. González
↦ José Callejón
56′
🔁 L. Torreira
↦ S. Amrabat
61′
🟨 Marco Benassi
Pietro Ceccaroni 🟨
62′
D. Črnigoj 🔁
↦ A. Vacca
65′
69′
🟨 Riccardo Sottil
Ethan Ampadu 🟨
71′
75′
🔁 Y. Maleh
↦ G. Bonaventura
77′
🟨 Riccardo Sottil
77′
🟥 Riccardo Sottil
82′
🔁 E. Pulgar
↦ A. Duncan
D. Heymans 🔁
↦ T. Henry
87′
M. Caldara 🔁
↦ M. Aramu
87′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Venezia

4-3-2-1
88 S. Romero G
55 R. Haps D
32 P. Ceccaroni D
22 T. Ebuehi D
30 M. Svoboda D
5 A. Vacca M
44 E. Ampadu M
27 G. Busio M
10 M. Aramu M
14 T. Henry F
17 D. Johnsen M
Bench (12)
77 D. Okereke
33 D. Črnigoj
18 D. Heymans
31 M. Caldara
1 N. Mäenpää
3 C. Molinaro
7 P. Mazzocchi
8 T. Tessmann
9 F. Forte
42 D. Peretz
23 S. Kiyine
11 A. Sigurðsson

Coach: P. Zanetti

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
3 C. Biraghi D
29 Odriozola D
98 Igor D
4 N. Milenković D
5 G. Bonaventura M
32 A. Duncan M
34 S. Amrabat M
7 José Callejón F
9 D. Vlahović F
33 R. Sottil F
Bench (12)
24 M. Benassi
22 N. González
18 L. Torreira
14 Y. Maleh
15 E. Pulgar
23 L. Venuti
55 M. Nastasić
2 L. Martínez
8 R. Saponara
67 L. Munteanu
17 A. Terzić
25 A. Rosati

Coach: V. Italiano

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,10
U
3,64
B
1,90
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,91
U2,5 ✓
1,91
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

L Massimi · 76 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.