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Serie A

Referee: A Prontera

Frosinone

S S T S U

4–2

Full-time

Sassuolo

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Frosinone Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

2,83 xG 1,26

55% Possession 45%

16 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Frosinone 10. · Sassuolo 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	4	0	0	+12	+7.1	12
2	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	+5.3	10
3	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.8	9
4	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.4	7
5	Lecce	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.5	7
6	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
7	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
8	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.5	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.7	4
10	Frosinone	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.4	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
12	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
13	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
14	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-3	-1.4	3
15	Monza	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
16	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-1.6	3
17	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.8	2
18	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
19	Roma	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.6	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.9	9
2	Lecce	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.6	6
3	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
4	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
5	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
6	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
7	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
8	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
9	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
10	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
11	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
12	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
13	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
14	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
18	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
19	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.2	6
2	Milan	3	2	0	1	-1	-0.8	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
6	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
7	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.6	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
9	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
10	Udinese	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
11	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
15	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.5	1
16	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.4	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
19	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.