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Serie A

Referee: D Di Marco

Fiorentina

U T S T U

1–1

Full-time

Genoa

T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 35%

40%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

47%

42%

Both score Ø 54%

47%

61%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,50 xG 1,51

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 10. · Genoa 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	32	26	5	1	+60	+43.7	83
2	Milan	32	21	6	5	+26	+15.7	69
3	Juventus	32	18	9	5	+21	+25.4	63
4	Bologna	32	16	11	5	+20	+12.7	59
5	Roma	31	16	7	8	+21	+11.3	55
6	Atalanta	30	15	5	10	+21	+9.7	50
7	Napoli	32	13	10	9	+10	+20.1	49
8	Lazio	32	15	4	13	+6	+3.9	49
9	Torino	32	11	12	9	+2	+4.8	45
10	Fiorentina	30	12	7	11	+7	-0.6	43
11	Monza	32	11	10	11	-7	-13.7	43
12	Genoa	31	9	11	11	-4	-4.2	38
13	Lecce	32	7	11	14	-21	-10.8	32
14	Cagliari	32	7	10	15	-20	-11.7	31
15	Udinese	31	4	16	11	-17	-11.0	28
16	Empoli	32	7	7	18	-23	-15.4	28
17	Verona	31	6	9	16	-14	-12.1	27
18	Frosinone	32	6	9	17	-23	-15.2	27
19	Sassuolo	32	6	8	18	-23	-15.7	26
20	Salernitana	32	2	9	21	-42	-36.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	3	1	+31	+26.4	42
2	Bologna	17	12	3	2	+21	+9.1	39
3	Roma	16	11	3	2	+20	+10.6	36
4	Milan	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.3	35
5	Juventus	16	10	5	1	+13	+16.6	35
6	Atalanta	14	10	1	3	+21	+12.1	31
7	Torino	16	7	7	2	+7	+7.8	28
8	Fiorentina	15	8	3	4	+10	+6.1	27
9	Lazio	16	8	3	5	+6	+8.1	27
10	Napoli	16	6	5	5	-1	+10.9	23
11	Monza	16	6	5	5	-1	-5.2	23
12	Cagliari	16	6	5	5	-3	+4.3	23
13	Lecce	16	6	5	5	-6	+0.6	23
14	Frosinone	16	6	4	6	-1	-3.5	22
15	Genoa	15	5	6	4	+0	-0.8	21
16	Verona	15	4	5	6	-4	-5.1	17
17	Sassuolo	16	4	5	7	-7	-7.1	17
18	Empoli	16	3	4	9	-10	-5.8	13
19	Udinese	16	1	9	6	-7	-1.2	12
20	Salernitana	16	1	5	10	-17	-12.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	13	2	0	+29	+17.3	41
2	Milan	17	10	4	3	+8	+7.5	34
3	Juventus	16	8	4	4	+8	+8.7	28
4	Napoli	16	7	5	4	+11	+9.2	26
5	Lazio	16	7	1	8	+0	-4.2	22
6	Bologna	15	4	8	3	-1	+3.6	20
7	Monza	16	5	5	6	-6	-8.4	20
8	Roma	15	5	4	6	+1	+0.7	19
9	Atalanta	16	5	4	7	+0	-2.4	19
10	Genoa	16	4	5	7	-4	-3.3	17
11	Torino	16	4	5	7	-5	-3.0	17
12	Fiorentina	15	4	4	7	-3	-6.7	16
13	Udinese	15	3	7	5	-10	-9.8	16
14	Empoli	16	4	3	9	-13	-9.6	15
15	Verona	16	2	4	10	-10	-7.0	10
16	Lecce	16	1	6	9	-15	-11.4	9
17	Sassuolo	16	2	3	11	-16	-8.6	9
18	Cagliari	16	1	5	10	-17	-15.9	8
19	Salernitana	16	1	4	11	-25	-24.2	7
20	Frosinone	16	0	5	11	-22	-11.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.