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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Cagliari

U T T U T

1–3

Full-time

Milan

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

80%

Points per game

0,4

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

20%

60%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

1,4

3,4

Scored

0,2

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,88 xG 2,19

33% Possession 67%

16 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 19. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.5	15
2	Juventus	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.3	13
3	Milan	5	4	0	1	+3	+2.1	12
4	Lecce	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.6	11
5	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+2	-2.8	10
6	Atalanta	5	3	0	2	+5	+3.3	9
7	Napoli	5	2	2	1	+3	+6.2	8
8	Frosinone	5	2	2	1	+1	-0.2	8
9	Torino	5	2	2	1	+1	-1.0	8
10	Verona	5	2	1	2	-1	-2.6	7
11	Bologna	5	1	3	1	-1	+0.1	6
12	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-2	-4.3	6
13	Roma	5	1	2	2	+5	+4.2	5
14	Monza	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.3	5
15	Lazio	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.6	4
16	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-4	-2.3	4
17	Salernitana	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.5	3
18	Udinese	5	0	3	2	-5	+0.2	3
19	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.8	2
20	Empoli	5	0	0	5	-13	-6.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+10	+6.9	9
2	Lecce	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.2	9
3	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
4	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
5	Milan	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.9	6
6	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
7	Frosinone	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.0	6
8	Torino	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
9	Roma	3	1	1	1	+6	+3.0	4
10	Monza	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
11	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.5	4
12	Verona	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
13	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.2	4
14	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
15	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	-3	-1.0	2
16	Lazio	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
17	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.6	1
18	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.5	1
19	Udinese	3	0	1	2	-5	+0.7	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.8	6
2	Inter	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.6	6
3	Fiorentina	3	2	0	1	+1	-4.3	6
4	Milan	3	2	0	1	-1	-0.8	6
5	Napoli	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.2	5
6	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.4	3
7	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
8	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.7	3
9	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.3	3
10	Verona	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.6	3
11	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.1	2
12	Frosinone	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
13	Udinese	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
14	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.2	1
16	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.5	1
17	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.4	1
18	Monza	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.7	1
19	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-4	-4.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-9	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.