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Serie A
Referee: D Doveri
Atalanta
S S S U U
1–1
Full-time
Juventus
U S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Juventus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
2,2
2,2
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 53%
68%
37%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
63%
47%
Both score Ø 53%
58%
47%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,6
Conceded
1,1
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,43 xG 1,54
60% Possession 40%
17 Shots 17
6 Shots on target 9
4 Blocked shots 4
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Atalanta 3. · Juventus 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Napoli 20 15 2 3 +20 +13.2 47
2 Inter 18 13 4 1 +31 +20.3 43
3 Atalanta 19 13 3 3 +23 +15.9 42
4 Lazio 20 11 3 6 +6 +9.0 36
5 Juventus 19 7 12 0 +15 +12.3 33
6 Fiorentina 19 9 5 5 +12 +8.1 32
7 Milan 19 8 7 4 +10 +13.1 31
8 Bologna 18 7 8 3 +4 +5.3 29
9 Udinese 20 7 5 8 -5 -7.3 26
10 Roma 20 6 6 8 +2 +0.8 24
11 Genoa 20 5 8 7 -10 -8.0 23
12 Torino 20 5 7 8 -5 -7.2 22
13 Empoli 20 4 8 8 -6 -9.4 20
14 Lecce 20 5 5 10 -18 -11.2 20
15 Parma 20 4 7 9 -10 -14.4 19
16 Como 20 4 7 9 -11 +1.6 19
17 Verona 20 6 1 13 -20 -13.7 19
18 Cagliari 20 4 6 10 -14 -8.8 18
19 Venezia 20 3 5 12 -15 -13.1 14
20 Monza 20 2 7 11 -9 -6.5 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Juventus
Half-time 0–1
54′
P. Kalulu 0–1
W. McKennie
L. Samardžić 🔁
↦ M. Pašalić
55′
M. Retegui 🔁
↦ C. De Ketelaere
65′
R. Bellanova 🔁
↦ D. Zappacosta
65′
Sead Kolašinac 🟨
74′
75′
🔁 Douglas Luiz
↦ K. Thuram
1–1 M. Retegui
R. Bellanova
78′
N. Zaniolo 🔁
↦ A. Lookman
80′
I. Hien 🔁
↦ G. Scalvini
81′
81′
🔁 S. Mbangula
↦ N. González
86′
🟨 Samuel Mbangula
87′
🔁 N. Fagioli
↦ M. Locatelli
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-1-2
29 M. Carnesecchi G
42 G. Scalvini D
19 B. Djimsiti D
23 S. Kolašinac D
77 D. Zappacosta M
13 Éderson M
15 M. de Roon M
22 M. Ruggeri M
8 M. Pašalić F
17 C. De Ketelaere F
11 A. Lookman F
Bench (11)
24 L. Samardžić
32 M. Retegui
16 R. Bellanova
10 N. Zaniolo
4 I. Hien
31 F. Rossi
44 M. Brescianini
6 I. Sulemana
28 Rui Patrício
2 R. Tolói
27 M. Palestra

Coach: G. Gasperini

Juventus

4-2-3-1
29 M. Di Gregorio G
37 N. Savona D
4 F. Gatti D
15 P. Kalulu D
27 A. Cambiaso D
5 M. Locatelli M
19 K. Thuram M
10 K. Yıldız M
16 W. McKennie M
11 N. González M
8 T. Koopmeiners F
Bench (8)
26 Douglas Luiz
51 S. Mbangula
21 N. Fagioli
17 V. Adžić
23 C. Pinsoglio
40 J. Rouhi
1 M. Perin
22 T. Weah

Coach: T. Motta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,11
U ✓
3,20
B
3,81
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,29
U2,5 ✓
1,63
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Doveri · 126 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
26,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.