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Championship
Referee: S Allison
Plymouth
T T U U S
1–1
Full-time
Oxford
S S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Plymouth Oxford
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,0
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,8
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 25/25 matches
Win Ø 22%
16%
28%
Points per game
0,8
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
56%
44%
Both score Ø 52%
48%
56%
Average goals
3,1
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,1
Conceded
2,1
1,6
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,52 xG 0,42
61% Possession 39%
11 Shots 8
2 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
8 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Plymouth 24. · Oxford 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leeds 26 15 8 3 +29 +27.8 53
2 Burnley 26 14 10 2 +22 +6.8 52
3 Sunderland 24 14 7 3 +18 +6.7 49
4 Sheffield United 24 14 6 4 +17 +9.8 48
5 Middlesbrough 26 11 8 7 +11 +13.7 41
6 West Brom 26 9 13 4 +11 +4.4 40
7 Blackburn 25 11 6 8 +5 +0.6 39
8 Bristol City 25 9 10 6 +4 +5.3 37
9 Watford 25 11 4 10 -1 -3.8 37
10 Sheffield Weds 26 10 7 9 -2 -4.5 37
11 Norwich 26 9 9 8 +6 +7.4 36
12 Swansea 26 9 7 10 +0 +1.6 34
13 QPR 26 7 11 8 -5 -6.7 32
14 Millwall 25 7 9 9 +1 +5.9 30
15 Preston 26 6 12 8 -6 -0.7 30
16 Coventry 25 7 7 11 -3 +14.2 28
17 Oxford 25 7 7 11 -12 -14.6 28
18 Derby 26 7 6 13 -4 -4.1 27
19 Stoke 26 6 9 11 -8 -12.6 27
20 Luton 26 7 4 15 -17 -3.6 25
21 Portsmouth 24 5 8 11 -11 -13.6 23
22 Hull 26 5 8 13 -11 -3.8 23
23 Cardiff 25 5 8 12 -15 -11.4 23
24 Plymouth 25 4 8 13 -29 -24.7 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

29. Dec -24 Oxford – Plymouth 2–0

Match report

Plymouth Oxford
43′
🔁 J. Thorniley
↦ S. Long
44′
W. Vaulks 0–1
M. Harris
Half-time 0–1
61′
🟨 Ciaron Brown
1–1 R. Al Hajj
T. Puchacz
63′
68′
🔁 S. Dembélé
↦ P. Płacheta
68′
🔁 D. Scarlett
↦ M. Harris
M. Obafemi 🔁
↦ R. Al Hajj
75′
77′
🔁 A. Matos
↦ Ruben Rodrigues
77′
🔁 H. ter Avest
↦ M. Phillips
Darko Gyabi 🟨
78′
I. Cissoko 🔁
↦ V. Pálsson
85′
J. Houghton 🔁
↦ D. Gyabi
89′
N. Ogbeta 🔁
↦ T. Puchacz
89′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Plymouth

3-4-2-1
31 D. Grimshaw G
5 Julio Pleguezuelo D
44 V. Pálsson D
22 B. Galloway D
2 B. Mumba M
20 A. Randell M
18 D. Gyabi M
17 T. Puchacz M
10 M. Whittaker F
28 R. Al Hajj F
30 M. Baidoo F
Bench (9)
14 M. Obafemi
7 I. Cissoko
4 J. Houghton
3 N. Ogbeta
34 C. Roberts
15 M. Bundu
29 M. Sorinola
33 Z. Baker
11 C. Wright

Coach: M. Muslić

Oxford

4-2-3-1
1 J. Cumming G
30 P. Kioso D
2 S. Long D
3 C. Brown D
22 G. Leigh D
4 W. Vaulks M
8 C. Brannagan M
7 P. Płacheta M
20 Ruben Rodrigues M
10 M. Phillips M
9 M. Harris F
Bench (9)
34 J. Thorniley
23 S. Dembélé
44 D. Scarlett
18 A. Matos
24 H. ter Avest
15 I. El Mizouni
21 M. Ingram
14 L. Sibley
6 J. McEachran

Coach: G. Rowett

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,34
U ✓
3,29
B
3,05
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,01
U2,5 ✓
1,79
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Allison · 65 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,05 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.