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Copa del Rey

Referee: Miguel Ortiz

Ourense CF

U S S S

0–2

Full-time

Valencia

U U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ourense CF Valencia

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 46%

75%

17%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 71%

75%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Copa del Rey · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ourense CF 11. · Valencia 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Betis	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Elche	3	3	0	0	+8	9
5	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+8	9
6	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+7	9
7	Pontevedra	3	3	0	0	+7	9
8	Almeria	3	3	0	0	+5	9
9	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+5	9
10	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	9
11	Ourense CF	3	3	0	0	+3	9
12	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+4	7
13	Leganes	3	2	1	0	+2	7
14	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
15	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+4	6
16	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
17	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
18	Huesca	3	2	0	1	+2	6
19	Santander	3	2	0	1	+1	6
20	Ferrol	3	2	0	1	+1	6
21	Cartagena	3	2	0	1	+1	6
22	Marbella	3	2	0	1	+1	6
23	Eldense	3	2	0	1	+0	6
24	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
25	Zaragoza	2	1	1	0	+4	4
26	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
27	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Granada	3	1	1	1	+1	4
29	Tenerife	3	1	1	1	+1	4
30	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
31	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
32	Zamora	2	1	1	0	+1	4
33	Orihuela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
34	Deportiva Minera	3	1	1	1	+0	4
35	Yeclano	2	1	0	1	+5	3
36	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+5	3
37	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
38	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
39	Unionistas de Salamanca	2	1	0	1	+3	3
40	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
41	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
42	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Cadiz	2	1	0	1	+2	3
44	Barakaldo	2	1	0	1	+1	3
45	Cultural Leonesa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
46	Ceuta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
48	Andorra	2	1	0	1	+0	3
49	Gimnastic	2	1	0	1	+0	3
50	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
51	Parla Escuela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
52	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
53	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
54	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
55	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
56	Manises	2	1	0	1	-1	3
57	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
58	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
59	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
60	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
61	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
62	Ponferradina	3	0	2	1	-2	2
63	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
64	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
65	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
66	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
67	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	1
68	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
69	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
70	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
71	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
72	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
73	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
74	Ontiñena	2	0	1	1	-7	1
75	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
76	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
77	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
78	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
79	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
80	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
81	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
82	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
102	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
103	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
104	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
105	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
106	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
107	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
108	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
109	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
110	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
111	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
112	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
113	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
114	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
115	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
116	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
117	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
118	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
119	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
120	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0
121	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
122	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
123	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
124	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
125	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Pontevedra	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Barbastro	3	2	0	1	+2	6
3	Ourense CF	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	UD Logroñés	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Estepona	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Elche	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Vic	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Santander	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Europa Fc	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Marbella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Conquense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Chiclana	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Cacereño	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Astur	2	1	0	1	-1	3
16	Sant Andreu	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Ejea	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	UD San Pedro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	Villamuriel	2	1	0	1	-4	3
20	Salamanca UDS	2	1	0	1	-6	3
21	Zaragoza	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Baztán	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Zamora	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Orihuela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Escobedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Olot	2	0	1	1	-2	1
27	Real Ávila	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Ponferradina	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	San Tirso	2	0	1	1	-4	1
30	Gévora	2	0	1	1	-5	1
31	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-5	1
32	Lanzarote	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Ceuta	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Tenerife	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Cartagena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Cultural Leonesa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	Guijuelo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Juventud Torremolinos	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Barakaldo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Ciudad de Lucena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Langreo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Bergantiños	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	SS Reyes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Don Benito	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Granada	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Cadiz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Huesca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Numancia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Beasain	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Gimnastic	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Atlético Paso	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Yeclano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Águilas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Sonseca	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Parla Escuela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Xerez	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Ferrol	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Lleida Esportiu	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Dolorense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Cuarte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Eldense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Alfaro	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Badalona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Cortes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Llanera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Móstoles	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	CD Coria	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Las Rozas	1	0	0	1	-3	0
73	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-3	0
74	Manises	1	0	0	1	-3	0
75	L'Hospitalet	1	0	0	1	-4	0
76	Utebo	1	0	0	1	-4	0
77	Extremadura 1924	1	0	0	1	-4	0
78	Poblense	1	0	0	1	-5	0
79	Tudelano	1	0	0	1	-5	0
80	Jove Español	1	0	0	1	-5	0
81	Laredo	1	0	0	1	-6	0
82	Ontiñena	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	3	3	0	0	+12	9
2	Vallecano	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Betis	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Sociedad	3	3	0	0	+8	9
5	Osasuna	3	3	0	0	+7	9
6	Valencia	3	3	0	0	+5	9
7	Ath Madrid	3	3	0	0	+5	9
8	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Leganes	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	Valladolid	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Las Palmas	3	2	0	1	+4	6
12	Elche	2	2	0	0	+4	6
13	Ferrol	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	Huesca	2	2	0	0	+3	6
15	Sevilla	3	2	0	1	+2	6
16	Almeria	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	Eldense	2	2	0	0	+2	6
18	Cartagena	2	2	0	0	+2	6
19	Girona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
20	Granada	2	1	1	0	+2	4
21	Tenerife	2	1	1	0	+2	4
22	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	4
23	Castellon	2	1	1	0	+1	4
24	Yeclano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
25	Deportiva Minera	1	1	0	0	+5	3
26	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+5	3
27	Villarreal	2	1	0	1	+4	3
28	Zaragoza	1	1	0	0	+4	3
29	Unionistas de Salamanca	1	1	0	0	+4	3
30	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
31	Cadiz	1	1	0	0	+3	3
32	Burgos	2	1	0	1	+2	3
33	Espanol	2	1	0	1	+2	3
34	Barakaldo	1	1	0	0	+2	3
35	Manises	1	1	0	0	+2	3
36	Cultural Leonesa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
37	Santander	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Ourense CF	1	1	0	0	+1	3
39	Gimnastic	1	1	0	0	+1	3
40	Zamora	1	1	0	0	+1	3
41	Orihuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
42	Marbella	1	1	0	0	+1	3
43	Andorra	1	1	0	0	+1	3
44	Parla Escuela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
45	Ceuta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
46	Sp Gijon	2	1	0	1	+0	3
47	Cordoba	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Selaya	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Ontiñena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
50	Playas Sotavento	1	0	1	0	+0	1
51	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	1
52	Ponferradina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
53	Oviedo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
54	Malaga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Gimnástica Segoviana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Albacete	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Mirandes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Eibar	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	La Coruna	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Aurrerá Vitoria	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Alcorcon	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Ibiza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Hércules	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Promesas EDF	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Levante	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-4	0
69	Amorebieta	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	Sporting Mahón	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.