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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Nott'm Forest

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Liverpool

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 84%

100%

67%

Points per game

3,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

4,5

Scored

2,0

3,3

Conceded

0,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 67%

60%

74%

Points per game

2,0

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

45%

68%

Both score Ø 47%

40%

53%

Average goals

2,4

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,31 xG 1,99

29% Possession 71%

6 Shots 23

3 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 9

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 3. · Liverpool 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	14	4	1	+28	+27.1	46
2	Arsenal	20	11	7	2	+21	+16.9	40
3	Nott'm Forest	20	12	4	4	+10	+4.0	40
4	Chelsea	21	10	7	4	+15	+12.6	37
5	Newcastle	20	10	5	5	+12	+11.3	35
6	Man City	21	10	5	6	+9	+7.3	35
7	Bournemouth	21	9	7	5	+7	+13.5	34
8	Aston Villa	20	9	5	6	-2	+6.7	32
9	Fulham	21	7	9	5	+2	+3.3	30
10	Brentford	21	8	4	9	+3	-0.1	28
11	Brighton	20	6	10	4	+1	-2.3	28
12	West Ham	21	7	5	9	-14	-8.1	26
13	Tottenham	20	7	3	10	+12	+2.3	24
14	Man United	20	6	5	9	-5	-2.5	23
15	Crystal Palace	20	4	9	7	-7	-1.6	21
16	Everton	19	3	8	8	-10	-8.4	17
17	Wolves	20	4	4	12	-14	-11.9	16
18	Ipswich	20	3	7	10	-15	-22.3	16
19	Leicester	20	3	5	12	-21	-20.9	14
20	Southampton	20	1	3	16	-32	-27.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.0	23
2	Brentford	11	7	2	2	+8	+5.6	23
3	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
4	Arsenal	9	6	3	0	+12	+13.2	21
5	Man City	10	6	2	2	+7	+9.5	20
6	Bournemouth	10	5	3	2	+5	+9.6	18
7	Newcastle	9	5	2	2	+7	+7.0	17
8	Nott'm Forest	9	5	2	2	+4	+4.3	17
9	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	+1.0	17
10	Chelsea	10	4	4	2	+4	+8.2	16
11	Brighton	10	3	6	1	+1	+2.2	15
12	Tottenham	11	4	2	5	+5	+0.7	14
13	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-8	-5.6	14
14	Man United	10	4	1	5	-3	+0.3	13
15	Crystal Palace	11	2	5	4	-7	+0.8	11
16	Everton	9	2	4	3	-1	-3.5	10
17	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-6	-7.9	9
18	Ipswich	10	1	4	5	-8	-7.7	7
19	Wolves	10	2	1	7	-9	-5.8	7
20	Southampton	10	1	1	8	-20	-16.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+16	+14.1	23
2	Nott'm Forest	11	7	2	2	+6	-0.2	23
3	Chelsea	11	6	3	2	+11	+4.4	21
4	Arsenal	11	5	4	2	+9	+3.7	19
5	Newcastle	11	5	3	3	+5	+4.3	18
6	Bournemouth	11	4	4	3	+2	+3.9	16
7	Man City	11	4	3	4	+2	-2.2	15
8	Fulham	10	3	4	3	+1	+2.3	13
9	Brighton	10	3	4	3	+0	-4.5	13
10	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
11	Tottenham	9	3	1	5	+7	+1.6	10
12	Crystal Palace	9	2	4	3	+0	-2.4	10
13	Man United	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.8	10
14	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-8	-5.2	10
15	Wolves	10	2	3	5	-5	-6.1	9
16	Ipswich	10	2	3	5	-7	-14.6	9
17	Everton	10	1	4	5	-9	-4.8	7
18	Brentford	10	1	2	7	-5	-5.7	5
19	Leicester	10	1	2	7	-15	-13.0	5
20	Southampton	10	0	2	8	-12	-10.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.