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Serie A

Referee: Marco Guida

Parma

S T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 15/16 matches

Win Ø 13%

20%

Points per game

0,9

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

33%

63%

Both score Ø 55%

40%

69%

Average goals

1,9

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,95 xG 1,23

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 23

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

0 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 17. · Fiorentina 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	0	4	+20	+14.0	33
2	Milan	15	9	5	1	+11	+6.0	32
3	Napoli	15	10	1	4	+9	+5.6	31
4	Roma	16	10	0	6	+7	+0.3	30
5	Juventus	16	8	5	3	+6	+9.0	29
6	Bologna	15	7	4	4	+10	+3.4	25
7	Como	15	6	6	3	+7	+4.3	24
8	Lazio	16	6	5	5	+6	-4.0	23
9	Atalanta	16	5	7	4	+2	+6.9	22
10	Sassuolo	16	6	3	7	+1	-6.2	21
11	Cremonese	16	5	6	5	+0	-6.8	21
12	Udinese	16	6	3	7	-10	-4.8	21
13	Torino	16	5	5	6	-10	-4.0	20
14	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-5.9	16
15	Cagliari	16	3	6	7	-6	-10.0	15
16	Genoa	16	3	5	8	-8	+1.5	14
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-8	-4.3	14
18	Verona	15	2	6	7	-9	-1.1	12
19	Pisa	16	1	8	7	-10	-5.1	11
20	Fiorentina	16	1	6	9	-10	+1.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
3	Juventus	8	5	3	0	+7	+7.3	18
4	Milan	8	5	2	1	+4	+3.9	17
5	Lazio	8	4	3	1	+8	+2.2	15
6	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
7	Roma	8	5	0	3	+4	+2.0	15
8	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+5	+5.1	13
9	Atalanta	8	3	4	1	+3	+7.0	13
10	Udinese	8	3	2	3	-4	+0.8	11
11	Torino	8	3	2	3	-5	-4.1	11
12	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	+0	-3.1	10
13	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
14	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-4.2	9
15	Lecce	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.7	9
16	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
17	Pisa	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.2	6
18	Parma	8	1	3	4	-5	-2.7	6
19	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-7	+0.8	6
20	Fiorentina	8	1	2	5	-2	+3.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+4	+4.1	15
3	Roma	8	5	0	3	+3	-1.6	15
4	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
5	Napoli	8	4	0	4	+1	+4.0	12
6	Cremonese	9	3	3	3	+0	-7.3	12
7	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.1	11
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	-1	+1.7	11
9	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-6	-5.6	10
10	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.1	9
11	Como	8	2	3	3	-1	+0.9	9
12	Torino	8	2	3	3	-5	+0.2	9
13	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
14	Lazio	8	2	2	4	-2	-6.2	8
15	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
16	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
17	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
18	Verona	8	1	3	4	-8	-2.1	6
19	Pisa	8	0	5	3	-6	-3.9	5
20	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-8	-2.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.