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Coppa Italia

Referee: L Marinelli

Fiorentina

S S T S S

2–2

Full-time

Parma

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

66% Possession 34%

29 Shots 18

7 Shots on target 8

10 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

4 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Salernitana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Reggiana	3	2	0	1	+4	6
4	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Cagliari	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Frosinone	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Genoa	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
11	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	FeralpiSalo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Catanzaro	2	1	0	1	-2	3
18	Spezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
22	Cesena	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-4	1
24	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
35	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0
37	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salernitana	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Genoa	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Reggiana	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Verona	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	FeralpiSalo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Catanzaro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Torino	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Cesena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Sampdoria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Sassuolo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Cosenza	1	0	0	1	-3	0
22	Bari	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Parma	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sassuolo	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Frosinone	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Reggiana	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Cittadella	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Venezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Virtus Entella	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Sudtirol	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Spezia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Modena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Palermo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	FeralpiSalo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Vicenza	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Ternana	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Pisa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Foggia	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Ascoli	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Verona	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Cesena	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Catanzaro	1	0	0	1	-3	0
25	Pescara	1	0	0	1	-4	0
26	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.