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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Napoli

T S S U U

0–0

Full-time

Parma

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 45%

63%

26%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

47%

32%

Both score Ø 45%

47%

42%

Average goals

2,5

1,9

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,37 xG 0,18

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 4. · Parma 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	1	4	+25	+19.3	43
2	Milan	19	11	7	1	+15	+9.5	40
3	Juventus	20	11	6	3	+16	+17.5	39
4	Napoli	19	12	3	4	+13	+7.9	39
5	Roma	20	13	0	7	+12	+2.5	39
6	Como	19	9	7	3	+14	+6.7	34
7	Atalanta	20	8	7	5	+6	+9.7	31
8	Lazio	20	7	7	6	+5	-4.3	28
9	Bologna	19	7	6	6	+6	+0.6	27
10	Udinese	20	7	5	8	-10	-4.3	26
11	Sassuolo	20	6	5	9	-4	-9.9	23
12	Torino	20	6	5	9	-11	-4.6	23
13	Cremonese	20	5	7	8	-8	-12.7	22
14	Parma	19	5	6	8	-8	-6.3	21
15	Genoa	20	4	7	9	-7	-0.6	19
16	Cagliari	20	4	7	9	-9	-11.0	19
17	Lecce	19	4	5	10	-14	-10.3	17
18	Fiorentina	20	2	8	10	-10	+1.7	14
19	Pisa	20	1	10	9	-15	-7.1	13
20	Verona	19	2	7	10	-16	-4.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	10	7	1	2	+18	+12.6	22
2	Juventus	10	6	4	0	+12	+12.3	22
3	Roma	10	7	0	3	+8	+4.4	21
4	Milan	10	6	3	1	+7	+7.1	21
5	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+8	+1.0	20
6	Como	9	5	4	0	+9	+4.7	19
7	Atalanta	11	5	4	2	+5	+9.6	19
8	Lazio	10	4	4	2	+6	+1.8	16
9	Bologna	9	4	2	3	+3	+4.1	14
10	Udinese	10	3	4	3	-4	+1.9	13
11	Sassuolo	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.8	11
12	Torino	10	3	2	5	-7	-4.4	11
13	Cremonese	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.6	10
14	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	+0.6	10
15	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-1	+4.5	9
16	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-3	-4.6	9
17	Parma	10	2	3	5	-6	-5.2	9
18	Lecce	11	2	3	6	-8	-2.5	9
19	Verona	9	1	3	5	-5	-0.8	6
20	Pisa	10	1	3	6	-9	-2.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	9	7	0	2	+7	+6.7	21
2	Milan	9	5	4	0	+8	+2.4	19
3	Napoli	11	6	1	4	+5	+6.8	19
4	Roma	10	6	0	4	+4	-2.0	18
5	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+4	+5.2	17
6	Como	10	4	3	3	+5	+1.9	15
7	Bologna	10	3	4	3	+3	-3.4	13
8	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-6	-6.2	13
9	Atalanta	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.2	12
10	Sassuolo	10	3	3	4	-1	-4.2	12
11	Lazio	10	3	3	4	-1	-6.2	12
12	Parma	9	3	3	3	-2	-1.1	12
13	Torino	10	3	3	4	-4	-0.2	12
14	Cremonese	11	3	3	5	-6	-11.1	12
15	Cagliari	11	2	4	5	-6	-6.5	10
16	Genoa	9	2	3	4	-3	-1.1	9
17	Lecce	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.8	8
18	Pisa	10	0	7	3	-6	-4.6	7
19	Verona	10	1	4	5	-11	-3.6	7
20	Fiorentina	10	0	5	5	-9	-2.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.