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Serie A

Referee: Simone Sozza

Udinese

T T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Napoli

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 54%

36%

71%

Points per game

1,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

1,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,31 xG 0,93

38% Possession 62%

18 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 12. · Napoli 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	15	9	5	1	+11	+6.0	32
2	Napoli	14	10	1	3	+10	+6.0	31
3	Inter	14	10	0	4	+19	+13.7	30
4	Roma	14	9	0	5	+7	+0.8	27
5	Bologna	14	7	4	3	+11	+4.6	25
6	Como	14	6	6	2	+8	+4.9	24
7	Juventus	14	6	5	3	+4	+6.8	23
8	Lazio	15	6	4	5	+6	-3.7	22
9	Sassuolo	15	6	3	6	+2	-4.9	21
10	Cremonese	15	5	5	5	+0	-7.1	20
11	Atalanta	15	4	7	4	+1	+6.3	19
12	Udinese	14	5	3	6	-7	-2.6	18
13	Torino	15	4	5	6	-11	-5.3	17
14	Lecce	15	4	4	7	-8	-5.9	16
15	Cagliari	15	3	5	7	-6	-8.9	14
16	Genoa	14	3	5	6	-6	+2.4	14
17	Parma	15	3	5	7	-8	-4.3	14
18	Pisa	15	1	7	7	-10	-6.2	10
19	Verona	14	1	6	7	-10	-0.4	9
20	Fiorentina	14	0	6	8	-13	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	7	6	1	0	+8	+1.6	19
2	Inter	8	6	0	2	+16	+9.8	18
3	Milan	8	5	2	1	+4	+3.9	17
4	Como	7	4	3	0	+8	+3.4	15
5	Juventus	7	4	3	0	+6	+6.2	15
6	Lazio	7	4	2	1	+8	+2.5	14
7	Bologna	6	4	1	1	+6	+6.2	13
8	Atalanta	8	3	4	1	+3	+7.0	13
9	Roma	7	4	0	3	+3	+1.4	12
10	Torino	8	3	2	3	-5	-4.1	11
11	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.8	10
12	Cremonese	7	2	3	2	+0	+0.4	9
13	Lecce	8	2	3	3	-2	-0.7	9
14	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.1	8
15	Udinese	7	2	2	3	-5	+0.4	8
16	Verona	7	1	3	3	-1	+1.0	6
17	Pisa	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.2	6
18	Parma	8	1	3	4	-5	-2.7	6
19	Genoa	7	1	3	3	-5	+1.8	6
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	+2.1	15
2	Roma	7	5	0	2	+4	-0.5	15
3	Bologna	8	3	3	2	+5	-1.6	12
4	Inter	6	4	0	2	+3	+3.8	12
5	Napoli	7	4	0	3	+2	+4.4	12
6	Sassuolo	8	3	2	3	+1	-3.1	11
7	Cremonese	8	3	2	3	+0	-7.5	11
8	Udinese	7	3	1	3	-2	-3.0	10
9	Como	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.5	9
10	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	+0.7	8
11	Juventus	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.6	8
12	Lazio	8	2	2	4	-2	-6.2	8
13	Parma	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
14	Lecce	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
15	Atalanta	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.7	6
16	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-4	-5.8	6
17	Torino	7	1	3	3	-6	-1.1	6
18	Pisa	7	0	4	3	-6	-5.0	4
19	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-8	-2.0	4
20	Verona	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.3	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.