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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Pisa

U U T T U

1–2

Full-time

Milan

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pisa Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

2,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/23 matches

Win Ø 33%

61%

Points per game

0,6

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

42%

48%

Both score Ø 49%

46%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 2,33

34% Possession 66%

7 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Pisa 19. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	24	19	1	4	+38	+29.3	58
2	Milan	23	14	8	1	+21	+12.1	50
3	Napoli	24	15	4	5	+13	+9.4	49
4	Juventus	24	13	7	4	+21	+24.8	46
5	Roma	24	15	1	8	+15	+7.1	46
6	Como	23	11	8	4	+21	+16.2	41
7	Atalanta	24	10	9	5	+11	+8.9	39
8	Lazio	24	8	9	7	+3	-7.8	33
9	Udinese	24	9	5	10	-9	-5.6	32
10	Bologna	24	8	6	10	+1	-1.5	30
11	Sassuolo	24	8	5	11	-7	-9.8	29
12	Cagliari	24	7	7	10	-5	-12.5	28
13	Torino	24	7	6	11	-18	-7.8	27
14	Parma	24	6	8	10	-14	-15.1	26
15	Genoa	24	5	8	11	-8	-1.5	23
16	Cremonese	24	5	8	11	-12	-14.8	23
17	Lecce	24	5	6	13	-16	-15.2	21
18	Fiorentina	24	3	9	12	-11	+3.0	18
19	Pisa	24	1	12	11	-21	-12.2	15
20	Verona	24	2	9	13	-23	-7.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Napoli	11	8	3	0	+10	+2.4	27
3	Juventus	12	7	5	0	+15	+14.9	26
4	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+10	+13.3	25
5	Roma	12	8	1	3	+10	+7.4	25
6	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
7	Como	12	6	5	1	+13	+12.3	23
8	Lazio	12	5	4	3	+4	+0.2	19
9	Udinese	12	4	4	4	-4	+0.3	16
10	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	+2	-4.5	15
11	Bologna	12	4	2	6	-2	+2.3	14
12	Sassuolo	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.1	14
13	Torino	12	4	2	6	-8	-4.6	14
14	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-0.5	13
15	Lecce	13	3	4	6	-7	-1.7	13
16	Cremonese	11	2	5	4	-4	-2.1	11
17	Fiorentina	12	2	4	6	-2	+5.9	10
18	Parma	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.3	10
19	Verona	12	1	4	7	-8	-2.0	7
20	Pisa	12	1	4	7	-11	-3.6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	0	2	+15	+10.6	30
2	Milan	12	7	5	0	+13	+1.8	26
3	Napoli	13	7	1	5	+3	+7.0	22
4	Roma	12	7	0	5	+5	-0.3	21
5	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+6	+9.9	20
6	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
7	Bologna	12	4	4	4	+3	-3.8	16
8	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-5	-5.9	16
9	Parma	12	4	4	4	-5	-5.8	16
10	Sassuolo	12	4	3	5	+0	-2.6	15
11	Atalanta	11	3	5	3	+1	-4.4	14
12	Lazio	12	3	5	4	-1	-8.0	14
13	Cagliari	13	3	4	6	-7	-7.9	13
14	Torino	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.2	13
15	Cremonese	13	3	3	7	-8	-12.6	12
16	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.9	10
17	Fiorentina	12	1	5	6	-9	-2.8	8
18	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-9	-13.5	8
19	Pisa	12	0	8	4	-10	-8.6	8
20	Verona	12	1	5	6	-15	-5.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.