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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Lille

U T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Montpellier

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,5

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 41%

47%

35%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

41%

Both score Ø 44%

41%

47%

Average goals

2,1

2,2

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 10

9 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 3. · Montpellier 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	0	3	+26	39
2	Marseille	17	10	4	3	+6	34
3	Lille	17	8	4	5	+6	28
4	Rennes	16	8	3	5	+5	27
5	Bordeaux	17	7	5	5	+8	26
6	Nantes	17	8	2	7	-1	26
7	Lyon	17	7	4	6	+12	25
8	St Etienne	17	7	4	6	-2	25
9	Reims	16	6	6	4	+5	24
10	Montpellier	17	6	6	5	+4	24
11	Monaco	16	7	3	6	+1	24
12	Angers	17	7	3	7	-3	24
13	Nice	17	7	2	8	-2	23
14	Brest	17	5	6	6	+1	21
15	Strasbourg	17	6	3	8	-3	21
16	Dijon	17	4	4	9	-8	16
17	Amiens	16	4	4	8	-12	16
18	Metz	17	3	6	8	-11	15
19	Toulouse	17	3	3	11	-16	12
20	Nimes	16	2	6	8	-16	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	9	7	2	0	+12	23
2	Paris SG	8	7	0	1	+18	21
3	Marseille	9	6	2	1	+6	20
4	Angers	9	6	1	2	+9	19
5	Montpellier	9	6	1	2	+7	19
6	Nantes	9	6	1	2	+4	19
7	Nice	9	5	2	2	+5	17
8	Strasbourg	9	5	2	2	+5	17
9	Brest	9	4	4	1	+9	16
10	Monaco	8	5	1	2	+6	16
11	Rennes	8	5	1	2	+4	16
12	Bordeaux	8	4	2	2	+9	14
13	Reims	9	3	5	1	+4	14
14	St Etienne	8	3	4	1	+4	13
15	Dijon	8	3	3	2	+0	12
16	Lyon	8	3	2	3	+6	11
17	Amiens	7	3	1	3	-3	10
18	Metz	8	2	3	3	+0	9
19	Toulouse	8	3	0	5	-4	9
20	Nimes	7	2	2	3	-2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	0	2	+8	18
2	Lyon	9	4	2	3	+6	14
3	Marseille	8	4	2	2	+0	14
4	Bordeaux	9	3	3	3	-1	12
5	St Etienne	9	4	0	5	-6	12
6	Rennes	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	Reims	7	3	1	3	+1	10
8	Monaco	8	2	2	4	-5	8
9	Nantes	8	2	1	5	-5	7
10	Nice	8	2	0	6	-7	6
11	Amiens	9	1	3	5	-9	6
12	Metz	9	1	3	5	-11	6
13	Montpellier	8	0	5	3	-3	5
14	Lille	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Brest	8	1	2	5	-8	5
16	Angers	8	1	2	5	-12	5
17	Strasbourg	8	1	1	6	-8	4
18	Dijon	9	1	1	7	-8	4
19	Nimes	9	0	4	5	-14	4
20	Toulouse	9	0	3	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.