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Ligue 1

Referee: Sebastien Moreira

Lille

T U U T T

1–1

Full-time

Montpellier

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

32%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

64%

21%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,6

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,9

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

5 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 19. · Montpellier 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	25	2	2	+72	77
2	Monaco	29	19	6	4	+41	63
3	Marseille	28	16	8	4	+24	56
4	Lyon	28	14	9	5	+24	51
5	Rennes	28	12	5	11	+1	41
6	Montpellier	28	9	13	6	+3	40
7	Nantes	28	11	7	10	-1	40
8	Nice	28	11	6	11	-5	39
9	Bordeaux	28	10	6	12	-4	36
10	Dijon	28	10	6	12	-14	36
11	Guingamp	28	9	8	11	-10	35
12	Caen	28	10	5	13	-10	35
13	St Etienne	28	9	8	11	-13	35
14	Angers	28	7	10	11	-8	31
15	Strasbourg	29	8	7	14	-19	31
16	Amiens	28	8	5	15	-9	29
17	Toulouse	28	7	8	13	-11	29
18	Troyes	28	8	4	16	-14	28
19	Lille	28	7	6	15	-18	27
20	Metz	29	5	5	19	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	15	0	0	+50	45
2	Monaco	15	12	2	1	+27	38
3	Marseille	14	9	4	1	+20	31
4	Dijon	14	9	2	3	+9	29
5	Nice	15	8	2	5	+3	26
6	Caen	15	7	3	5	+1	24
7	Lyon	13	6	5	2	+8	23
8	Montpellier	15	5	7	3	+4	22
9	Strasbourg	15	6	4	5	+0	22
10	Bordeaux	13	6	3	4	+2	21
11	Guingamp	14	5	6	3	+2	21
12	St Etienne	14	5	6	3	-1	21
13	Troyes	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Nantes	13	6	2	5	+1	20
15	Toulouse	13	5	4	4	+2	19
16	Rennes	13	6	1	6	-2	19
17	Amiens	14	5	3	6	+0	18
18	Lille	14	4	4	6	-5	16
19	Angers	14	4	4	6	-6	16
20	Metz	14	3	2	9	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	2	2	+22	32
2	Lyon	15	8	4	3	+16	28
3	Monaco	14	7	4	3	+14	25
4	Marseille	14	7	4	3	+4	25
5	Rennes	15	6	4	5	+3	22
6	Nantes	15	5	5	5	-2	20
7	Montpellier	13	4	6	3	-1	18
8	Angers	14	3	6	5	-2	15
9	Bordeaux	15	4	3	8	-6	15
10	Guingamp	14	4	2	8	-12	14
11	St Etienne	14	4	2	8	-12	14
12	Nice	13	3	4	6	-8	13
13	Amiens	14	3	2	9	-9	11
14	Caen	13	3	2	8	-11	11
15	Lille	14	3	2	9	-13	11
16	Toulouse	15	2	4	9	-13	10
17	Metz	15	2	3	10	-18	9
18	Strasbourg	14	2	3	9	-19	9
19	Troyes	13	2	1	10	-13	7
20	Dijon	14	1	4	9	-23	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.