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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Metz

U T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Marseille

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 38%

32%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

41%

46%

Both score Ø 57%

51%

62%

Average goals

2,4

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 10

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Metz 10. · Marseille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	37	23	11	3	+40	80
2	Paris SG	37	25	4	8	+56	79
3	Monaco	37	24	5	8	+34	77
4	Lyon	37	22	10	5	+39	76
5	Marseille	37	16	11	10	+7	59
6	Lens	37	15	11	11	+1	56
7	Rennes	37	15	10	12	+10	55
8	Montpellier	37	13	12	12	-3	51
9	Nice	37	14	7	16	-4	49
10	Metz	37	12	10	15	-4	46
11	St Etienne	37	12	10	15	-11	46
12	Angers	37	12	8	17	-17	44
13	Reims	37	9	15	13	-7	42
14	Bordeaux	37	12	6	19	-15	42
15	Strasbourg	37	11	8	18	-9	41
16	Brest	37	11	8	18	-14	41
17	Lorient	37	11	8	18	-18	41
18	Nantes	37	9	13	15	-7	40
19	Nimes	37	9	8	20	-29	35
20	Dijon	37	3	9	25	-49	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	19	12	5	2	+22	41
2	Paris SG	19	13	1	5	+30	40
3	Lille	19	10	7	2	+17	37
4	Lyon	18	11	3	4	+20	36
5	Marseille	19	10	5	4	+9	35
6	Lorient	19	10	2	7	+2	32
7	Rennes	18	8	4	6	+3	28
8	Brest	18	8	4	6	+1	28
9	Lens	18	7	6	5	+2	27
10	Montpellier	19	7	4	8	-1	25
11	Bordeaux	19	7	4	8	-2	25
12	Nice	19	7	3	9	-5	24
13	Angers	18	6	3	9	-6	21
14	St Etienne	18	5	6	7	-8	21
15	Reims	18	4	8	6	-4	20
16	Metz	18	5	4	9	-7	19
17	Nantes	18	3	8	7	-7	17
18	Strasbourg	18	4	4	10	-8	16
19	Nimes	19	3	5	11	-17	14
20	Dijon	19	1	6	12	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	18	13	4	1	+23	43
2	Lyon	19	11	7	1	+19	40
3	Paris SG	18	12	3	3	+26	39
4	Monaco	18	12	0	6	+12	36
5	Lens	19	8	5	6	-1	29
6	Rennes	19	7	6	6	+7	27
7	Metz	19	7	6	6	+3	27
8	Montpellier	18	6	8	4	-2	26
9	Nice	18	7	4	7	+1	25
10	Strasbourg	19	7	4	8	-1	25
11	St Etienne	19	7	4	8	-3	25
12	Marseille	18	6	6	6	-2	24
13	Nantes	19	6	5	8	+0	23
14	Angers	19	6	5	8	-11	23
15	Reims	19	5	7	7	-3	22
16	Nimes	18	6	3	9	-12	21
17	Bordeaux	18	5	2	11	-13	17
18	Brest	19	3	4	12	-15	13
19	Lorient	18	1	6	11	-20	9
20	Dijon	18	2	3	13	-26	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.