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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Atalanta

S U S S S

0–2

Full-time

Milan

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

4,2

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,3

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 62%

62%

Points per game

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

62%

65%

Both score Ø 58%

65%

51%

Average goals

3,6

3,1

Scored

2,4

1,9

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

11 Shots 7

1 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 0

1 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 2. · Milan 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	38	28	7	3	+54	91
2	Atalanta	37	23	9	5	+45	78
3	Napoli	37	24	4	9	+45	76
4	Milan	37	23	7	7	+31	76
5	Juventus	37	22	9	6	+36	75
6	Lazio	37	21	5	11	+8	68
7	Roma	37	18	7	12	+10	61
8	Sassuolo	37	16	11	10	+6	59
9	Sampdoria	38	15	7	16	-2	52
10	Verona	37	11	11	15	-2	44
11	Genoa	38	10	12	16	-11	42
12	Bologna	37	10	11	16	-11	41
13	Fiorentina	38	9	13	16	-12	40
14	Udinese	38	10	10	18	-16	40
15	Spezia	37	9	11	17	-20	38
16	Cagliari	38	9	10	19	-16	37
17	Torino	37	7	15	15	-19	36
18	Benevento	37	7	11	19	-35	32
19	Crotone	38	6	5	27	-47	23
20	Parma	38	3	11	24	-44	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	19	17	1	1	+35	52
2	Juventus	19	14	2	3	+22	44
3	Roma	19	13	4	2	+24	43
4	Lazio	19	13	3	3	+13	42
5	Napoli	18	12	3	3	+30	39
6	Atalanta	18	12	3	3	+27	39
7	Milan	19	8	6	5	+7	30
8	Sampdoria	19	9	3	7	+6	30
9	Bologna	18	7	5	6	+3	26
10	Sassuolo	18	6	8	4	+2	26
11	Fiorentina	19	6	6	7	+0	24
12	Verona	19	6	6	7	+0	24
13	Genoa	19	5	7	7	-1	22
14	Spezia	18	5	6	7	-5	21
15	Udinese	19	5	4	10	-5	19
16	Cagliari	19	5	4	10	-10	19
17	Torino	18	3	8	7	-11	17
18	Crotone	19	5	2	12	-12	17
19	Benevento	19	2	7	10	-20	13
20	Parma	19	2	5	12	-23	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	18	15	1	2	+24	46
2	Inter	19	11	6	2	+19	39
3	Atalanta	19	11	6	2	+18	39
4	Napoli	19	12	1	6	+15	37
5	Sassuolo	19	10	3	6	+4	33
6	Juventus	18	8	7	3	+14	31
7	Lazio	18	8	2	8	-5	26
8	Sampdoria	19	6	4	9	-8	22
9	Udinese	19	5	6	8	-11	21
10	Verona	18	5	5	8	-2	20
11	Genoa	19	5	5	9	-10	20
12	Torino	19	4	7	8	-8	19
13	Benevento	18	5	4	9	-15	19
14	Cagliari	19	4	6	9	-6	18
15	Roma	18	5	3	10	-14	18
16	Spezia	19	4	5	10	-15	17
17	Fiorentina	19	3	7	9	-12	16
18	Bologna	19	3	6	10	-14	15
19	Parma	19	1	6	12	-21	9
20	Crotone	19	1	3	15	-35	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.