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Serie A
Referee: Paolo Valeri
Bologna
T U U T U
1–4
Full-time
Juventus
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Juventus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,5
3,5
Scored
1,2
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+0,5
This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches
Win Ø 43%
27%
59%
Points per game
1,1
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
51%
59%
Both score Ø 61%
59%
62%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
1,4
2,0
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,0
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

49% Possession 51%
18 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 11
5 Blocked shots 5
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 0
3 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bologna 12. · Juventus 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Inter 38 28 7 3 +54 91
2 Atalanta 37 23 9 5 +45 78
3 Napoli 37 24 4 9 +45 76
4 Milan 37 23 7 7 +31 76
5 Juventus 37 22 9 6 +36 75
6 Lazio 37 21 5 11 +8 68
7 Roma 37 18 7 12 +10 61
8 Sassuolo 37 16 11 10 +6 59
9 Sampdoria 38 15 7 16 -2 52
10 Verona 37 11 11 15 -2 44
11 Genoa 38 10 12 16 -11 42
12 Bologna 37 10 11 16 -11 41
13 Fiorentina 38 9 13 16 -12 40
14 Udinese 38 10 10 18 -16 40
15 Spezia 37 9 11 17 -20 38
16 Cagliari 38 9 10 19 -16 37
17 Torino 37 7 15 15 -19 36
18 Benevento 37 7 11 19 -35 32
19 Crotone 38 6 5 27 -47 23
20 Parma 38 3 11 24 -44 20

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bologna Juventus
6′
F. Chiesa 0–1
29′
A. Morata 0–2
P. Dybala
37′
🟨 A. Morata
G. Medel 🟨
44′
45′
A. Rabiot 0–3
D. Kulusevski
Half-time 0–3
46′
🔁 M. de Ligt
↦ L. Bonucci
47′
A. Morata 0–4
W. Szczesny
A. Skov Olsen 🔁
↦ R. Orsolini
57′
E. Vignato 🔁
↦ N. Sansone
57′
58′
🔁 G. Chiellini
↦ Arthur
58′
🔁 F. Chiesa
↦ W. McKennie
G. Medel 🔁
↦ V. Antov
58′
66′
🟨 W. McKennie
67′
🔁 Danilo
↦ F. Bernardeschi
L. De Silvestri 🔁
↦ P. Farago
68′
68′
🔁 W. Szczesny
↦ C. Pinsoglio
J. Schouten 🔁
↦ A. F. Baldursson
80′
1–4 R. Orsolini
R. Palacio
85′
Full-time 1–4

Line-ups

Bologna

4-2-3-1
28 Łukasz Skorupski G
14 Takehiro Tomiyasu D
17 Gary Medel D
5 Adama Soumaoro D
29 Lorenzo De Silvestri D
30 Jerdy Schouten M
32 Mattias Svanberg M
11 Andreas Skov Olsen M
55 Emanuel Vignato M
99 Musa Barrow M
24 Rodrigo Palacio F
Bench (11)
34 Federico Ravaglia
1 Angelo Da Costa
26 Valentin Antov
15 Ibrahima Mbaye
16 Andrea Poli
7 Riccardo Orsolini
82 Kacper Urbański
43 Paolo Faragò
18 Andri Fannar Baldursson
10 Nicola Sansone
80 Musa Juwara

Coach: S. Mihajlović

Juventus

4-4-2
1 Wojciech Szczęsny G
16 Juan Cuadrado D
4 Matthijs De Ligt D
3 Giorgio Chiellini D
12 Alex Sandro D
44 Dejan Kulusevski M
13 Danilo M
25 Adrien Rabiot M
22 Federico Chiesa M
10 Paulo Dybala F
9 Álvaro Morata F
Bench (11)
31 Carlo Pinsoglio
77 Gianluigi Buffon
19 Leonardo Bonucci
38 Gianluca Frabotta
28 Merih Demiral
14 Weston McKennie
5 Arthur
41 Nicolò Fagioli
7 Cristiano Ronaldo
53 Félix Correia
33 Federico Bernardeschi

Coach: A. Pirlo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
11,64
U
6,62
B ✓
1,24
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,31
U2,5
3,38
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Paolo Valeri · 66 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.