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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Lille

U U S S U

3–1

Full-time

Brest

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 42%

46%

38%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

46%

62%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,51 xG 0,65

62% Possession 38%

10 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 4. · Brest 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	3	0	+26	+23.5	33
2	Marseille	13	8	2	3	+12	-1.9	26
3	Monaco	13	8	2	3	+10	+13.6	26
4	Lille	13	6	5	2	+8	+4.9	23
5	Lyon	13	6	4	3	+6	+5.8	22
6	Nice	13	5	5	3	+8	+7.5	20
7	Lens	13	5	5	3	+3	+6.2	20
8	Auxerre	13	6	1	6	+0	-5.0	19
9	Reims	13	5	3	5	+2	-4.7	18
10	Toulouse	13	5	3	5	+1	+10.0	18
11	Brest	13	5	1	7	-4	-7.8	16
12	Rennes	13	4	2	7	-1	+1.1	14
13	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-5	-7.2	13
14	Angers	13	3	4	6	-7	-5.1	13
15	St Etienne	13	4	1	8	-19	-12.0	13
16	Le Havre	13	4	0	9	-14	-9.9	12
17	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-5	-6.0	11
18	Montpellier	13	2	2	9	-21	-13.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+16	+12.1	19
2	Auxerre	6	5	0	1	+7	+3.6	15
3	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.7	14
4	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.4	13
5	Brest	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.5	13
6	Lyon	7	4	1	2	+4	+4.3	13
7	Nice	6	3	3	0	+10	+7.2	12
8	St Etienne	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.9	12
9	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.1	11
10	Lille	6	3	2	1	+2	-0.2	11
11	Toulouse	7	3	2	2	+2	+5.6	11
12	Lens	6	2	2	2	-1	+5.9	8
13	Reims	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.6	8
14	Marseille	6	2	2	2	-2	-0.3	8
15	Montpellier	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.3	8
16	Le Havre	7	2	0	5	-11	-7.7	6
17	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	+2.0	5
18	Angers	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	7	6	0	1	+14	-1.6	18
2	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.4	14
3	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+6	+5.9	12
4	Lille	7	3	3	1	+6	+5.2	12
5	Lens	7	3	3	1	+4	+0.4	12
6	Reims	6	3	1	2	+4	-2.1	10
7	Lyon	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
8	Angers	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.0	9
9	Nice	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.3	8
10	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	+4.4	7
11	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	-7.9	6
12	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.2	6
13	Auxerre	7	1	1	5	-7	-8.6	4
14	Brest	6	1	0	5	-9	-8.3	3
15	Strasbourg	7	0	2	5	-8	-7.1	2
16	Rennes	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.3	1
17	St Etienne	7	0	1	6	-21	-14.9	1
18	Montpellier	6	0	0	6	-14	-10.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.