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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Montpellier

T T T S T

2–2

Full-time

Lille

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Lille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

75%

42%

Both score Ø 46%

50%

42%

Average goals

3,6

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

2,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,47 xG 2,22

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Lille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	3	0	+26	+23.5	33
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+11	+14.5	26
3	Marseille	12	7	2	3	+11	-2.8	23
4	Lille	12	6	4	2	+8	+4.2	22
5	Nice	12	5	5	2	+11	+8.2	20
6	Lens	13	5	5	3	+3	+6.2	20
7	Lyon	12	5	4	3	+3	+5.1	19
8	Auxerre	12	6	1	5	+2	-2.8	19
9	Reims	13	5	3	5	+2	-4.7	18
10	Brest	13	5	1	7	-4	-7.8	16
11	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-1	+7.8	15
12	Rennes	13	4	2	7	-1	+1.1	14
13	Strasbourg	13	3	4	6	-5	-7.2	13
14	St Etienne	13	4	1	8	-19	-12.0	13
15	Le Havre	12	4	0	8	-13	-7.9	12
16	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-5	-6.0	11
17	Angers	12	2	4	6	-8	-7.1	10
18	Montpellier	12	2	1	9	-21	-12.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+16	+12.1	19
2	Auxerre	6	5	0	1	+7	+3.6	15
3	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+4	+7.7	14
4	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+9	+5.4	13
5	Brest	7	4	1	2	+5	+0.5	13
6	Nice	6	3	3	0	+10	+7.2	12
7	St Etienne	6	4	0	2	+2	+2.9	12
8	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.1	11
9	Lille	6	3	2	1	+2	-0.2	11
10	Lyon	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.6	10
11	Toulouse	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.4	8
12	Lens	6	2	2	2	-1	+5.9	8
13	Reims	7	2	2	3	-2	-2.6	8
14	Montpellier	6	2	1	3	-7	-1.6	7
15	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-10	-5.7	6
16	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-2	+2.0	5
17	Marseille	5	1	2	2	-3	-1.2	5
18	Angers	6	1	1	4	-6	-4.2	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	7	6	0	1	+14	-1.6	18
2	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+10	+11.4	14
3	Monaco	5	4	0	1	+7	+6.9	12
4	Lens	7	3	3	1	+4	+0.4	12
5	Lille	6	3	2	1	+6	+4.4	11
6	Reims	6	3	1	2	+4	-2.1	10
7	Lyon	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.5	9
8	Nice	6	2	2	2	+1	+1.0	8
9	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-1	+4.4	7
10	Angers	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.9	6
11	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-3	-7.9	6
12	Le Havre	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.2	6
13	Auxerre	6	1	1	4	-5	-6.4	4
14	Brest	6	1	0	5	-9	-8.3	3
15	Strasbourg	7	0	2	5	-8	-7.1	2
16	Rennes	6	0	1	5	-10	-4.3	1
17	St Etienne	7	0	1	6	-21	-14.9	1
18	Montpellier	6	0	0	6	-14	-10.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.