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Champions League
Referee: M Oliver
Bologna
S S T S T
1–2
Full-time
Lille
S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
17%
67%
Average goals
2,3
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,7
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/8 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 19%
0%
38%
Both score Ø 32%
0%
63%
Average goals
1,3
2,4
Scored
0,0
1,4
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,45 xG 2,16
57% Possession 43%
12 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 3
6 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 3
6 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Bologna Lille
Thijs Dallinga ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
6′
22′
🟨 Alexsandro Ribeiro
Charalampos Lykogiannīs 🟨
33′
44′
⚽ N. Mukau 0–1
Half-time 0–1
54′
🟨 Thomas Meunier
1–1 J. Lucumí ⚽
C. Lykogiannis
63′
66′
⚽ N. Mukau 1–2
M. Fernandez-Pardo
Juan Miranda 🔁
↦ C. Lykogiannis
68′
J. Odgaard 🔁
↦ R. Orsolini
68′
73′
🔁 A. Mandi
↦ T. Meunier
74′
🔁 E. Zhegrova
↦ O. Sahraoui
S. Castro 🔁
↦ G. Fabbian
75′
80′
🟨 Aïssa Mandi
Jens Odgaard 🟨
84′
E. Holm 🔁
↦ S. Posch
85′
S. Iling-Junior 🔁
↦ D. Ndoye
85′
86′
🔁 H. Haraldsson
↦ N. Mukau
86′
🔁 M. Bakker
↦ M. Fernandez-Pardo
94′
🟨 Edon Zhegrova
Santiago Castro 🟨
96′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Bologna

4-3-3
1 Ł. Skorupski G
3 S. Posch D
31 S. Beukema D
26 J. Lucumí D
22 C. Lykogiannis D
80 G. Fabbian M
8 R. Freuler M
19 L. Ferguson M
7 R. Orsolini F
24 T. Dallinga F
11 D. Ndoye F
Bench (12)
33 Juan Miranda
21 J. Odgaard
9 S. Castro
2 E. Holm
14 S. Iling-Junior
34 F. Ravaglia
5 M. Erlić
82 K. Urbański
18 T. Pobega
16 T. Corazza
6 N. Moro
15 N. Casale

Coach: V. Italiano

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
12 T. Meunier D
18 B. Diakité D
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro D
5 G. Gudmundsson D
21 B. André M
32 A. Bouaddi M
19 M. Fernandez-Pardo
17 N. Mukau M
11 O. Sahraoui M
9 J. David F
Bench (10)
2 A. Mandi
23 E. Zhegrova
7 H. Haraldsson
20 M. Bakker
10 R. Cabella
1 V. Mannone
36 O. Touré
16 M. Caillard
31 Ismaily
27 M. Bayo

Coach: B. Génésio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Oliver · 207 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.