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Ligue 1

Referee: H Ben El Hadj

Nice

S S T U T

1–2

Full-time

Nantes

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 35%

48%

22%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

56%

44%

Both score Ø 69%

70%

67%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,90 xG 0,57

76% Possession 24%

21 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 4. · Nantes 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	27	22	5	0	+53	+46.8	71
2	Monaco	27	15	5	7	+20	+32.9	50
3	Marseille	27	15	4	8	+18	+12.3	49
4	Nice	27	13	8	6	+18	+15.4	47
5	Lille	27	13	8	6	+13	+9.1	47
6	Strasbourg	27	13	7	7	+10	-7.0	46
7	Lyon	27	13	6	8	+15	+8.0	45
8	Brest	27	12	4	11	+0	-7.3	40
9	Lens	27	11	6	10	+1	+3.4	39
10	Auxerre	27	9	8	10	-1	-9.3	35
11	Toulouse	27	9	7	11	+2	+10.5	34
12	Rennes	27	10	2	15	+1	+1.1	32
13	Nantes	27	6	9	12	-15	-14.3	27
14	Angers	27	7	6	14	-19	-15.0	27
15	Reims	27	6	8	13	-12	-16.5	26
16	Le Havre	27	7	3	17	-28	-15.3	24
17	St Etienne	27	6	5	16	-35	-33.0	23
18	Montpellier	27	4	3	20	-41	-21.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	11	2	0	+27	+24.0	35
2	Monaco	14	10	2	2	+17	+22.5	32
3	Lille	14	9	3	2	+10	+1.9	30
4	Nice	13	8	4	1	+16	+12.4	28
5	Strasbourg	13	8	4	1	+11	-0.1	28
6	Lyon	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.8	26
7	Auxerre	14	7	5	2	+10	+3.5	26
8	Brest	13	7	3	3	+8	+1.7	24
9	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+8	+12.8	22
10	Rennes	14	7	1	6	+6	+3.1	22
11	Lens	13	5	2	6	-2	+5.3	17
12	St Etienne	13	5	2	6	-7	-6.7	17
13	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
14	Toulouse	14	4	4	6	-2	+2.8	16
15	Reims	14	3	4	7	-6	-5.7	13
16	Montpellier	14	3	3	8	-19	-5.4	12
17	Angers	14	3	2	9	-16	-12.6	11
18	Le Havre	14	3	1	10	-20	-8.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+26	+22.8	36
2	Marseille	14	9	0	5	+10	-0.5	27
3	Lens	14	6	4	4	+3	-1.9	22
4	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+4	+0.3	19
5	Nice	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.9	19
6	Toulouse	13	5	3	5	+4	+7.7	18
7	Monaco	13	5	3	5	+3	+10.5	18
8	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-1	-6.9	18
9	Lille	13	4	5	4	+3	+7.2	17
10	Angers	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.4	16
11	Brest	14	5	1	8	-8	-9.0	16
12	Le Havre	13	4	2	7	-8	-7.3	14
13	Reims	13	3	4	6	-6	-10.9	13
14	Nantes	14	2	5	7	-14	-15.2	11
15	Rennes	13	3	1	9	-5	-2.0	10
16	Auxerre	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.9	9
17	St Etienne	14	1	3	10	-28	-26.3	6
18	Montpellier	13	1	0	12	-22	-16.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.