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Ligue 1
Referee: J Brisard
St Etienne
U T T T U
1–3
Full-time
Nice
U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
33%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,8
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
2,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 23/23 matches
Win Ø 37%
22%
52%
Points per game
0,8
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
52%
57%
Both score Ø 59%
48%
70%
Average goals
3,3
3,2
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
2,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,89 xG 1,91
62% Possession 38%
12 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 9
2 Blocked shots 1
8 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 4
0 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match St Etienne 16. · Nice 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 23 18 5 0 +40 +38.2 59
2 Marseille 23 14 4 5 +21 +12.5 46
3 Nice 23 12 7 4 +19 +14.5 43
4 Monaco 24 13 4 7 +17 +27.6 43
5 Lille 23 11 8 4 +15 +8.6 41
6 Lyon 23 10 6 7 +12 +6.0 36
7 Strasbourg 23 9 7 7 +5 -4.9 34
8 Lens 23 9 6 8 +1 +4.4 33
9 Brest 23 10 3 10 -3 -9.6 33
10 Toulouse 23 8 6 9 +1 +8.4 30
11 Auxerre 23 7 7 9 -3 -11.4 28
12 Angers 23 7 6 10 -8 -6.4 27
13 Rennes 23 8 2 13 -2 +1.8 26
14 Nantes 23 5 9 9 -12 -9.1 24
15 Reims 24 5 7 12 -12 -16.6 22
16 St Etienne 23 5 4 14 -30 -29.4 19
17 Le Havre 23 5 2 16 -28 -16.8 17
18 Montpellier 23 4 3 16 -33 -17.9 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

St Etienne Nice
Irvin Cardona 🟨
5′
6′
🟨 Jonathan Clauss
10′
P. Rosario 0–1
1–1 L. Stassin
A. Moueffek
32′
Half-time 2–1
52′
M. Nadé 2–1
own goal
L. Mouton 🔁
↦ A. Moueffek
62′
D. Appiah 🔁
↦ Y. Maçon
62′
62′
🔁 H. Boudaoui
↦ P. Rosario
62′
🔁 S. Diop
↦ G. Laborde
69′
E. Guessand 2–2
M. Cho
A. Boakye 🔁
↦ I. Cardona
71′
M. Bernauer 🔁
↦ D. Batubinsika
71′
79′
🔁 T. Louchet
↦ J. Clauss
79′
🔁 J. Boga
↦ M. Cho
88′
🔁 A. Abdi
↦ E. Guessand
Maxime Bernauer 🟨
95′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

St Etienne

4-2-3-1
30 G. Larsonneur G
27 Y. Maçon D
21 D. Batubinsika D
3 M. Nadé D
19 L. Pétrot D
10 F. Tardieu M
29 A. Moueffek M
7 I. Cardona M
6 B. Bouchouari M
22 Z. Davitashvili M
32 L. Stassin F
Bench (9)
14 L. Mouton
8 D. Appiah
20 A. Boakye
13 M. Bernauer
17 P. Cornud
1 B. Maubleu
5 Y. Abdelhamid
26 L. Fomba
63 D. N´Guessan

Coach: E. Horneland

Nice

3-4-2-1
1 M. Bułka G
64 M. Bombito D
55 Y. Ndayishimiye D
4 Dante D
92 J. Clauss M
8 P. Rosario M
28 B. Santamaría M
26 M. Bard M
29 E. Guessand F
25 M. Cho F
24 G. Laborde F
Bench (9)
6 H. Boudaoui
10 S. Diop
20 T. Louchet
7 J. Boga
2 A. Abdi
5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
33 A. Mendy
19 B. Bouanani
31 M. Dupé

Coach: F. Haise

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,69
U
4,13
B ✓
1,69
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,63
U2,5
2,31
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Brisard · 168 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.