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Ligue 1

Referee: J Brisard

Nantes

U U S T T

3–1

Full-time

Lens

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 30%

18%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

45%

27%

Both score Ø 55%

73%

36%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

1,1

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,41 xG 1,77

35% Possession 65%

17 Shots 14

8 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

2 Corners 11

13 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nantes 15. · Lens 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	22	17	5	0	+39	+37.5	56
2	Marseille	23	14	4	5	+21	+12.5	46
3	Lille	23	11	8	4	+15	+8.6	41
4	Nice	22	11	7	4	+17	+13.3	40
5	Monaco	23	12	4	7	+14	+24.3	40
6	Lyon	22	10	6	6	+13	+6.7	36
7	Strasbourg	22	9	6	7	+5	-4.9	33
8	Lens	22	9	6	7	+3	+7.0	33
9	Brest	22	10	2	10	-3	-9.6	32
10	Auxerre	23	7	7	9	-3	-11.4	28
11	Toulouse	22	7	6	9	-2	+6.8	27
12	Angers	23	7	6	10	-8	-6.4	27
13	Rennes	23	8	2	13	-2	+1.8	26
14	Reims	23	5	7	11	-9	-13.3	22
15	Nantes	22	4	9	9	-14	-11.8	21
16	St Etienne	23	5	4	14	-30	-29.4	19
17	Le Havre	22	5	2	15	-25	-15.1	17
18	Montpellier	22	4	3	15	-31	-16.7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+22	+19.8	29
2	Monaco	12	8	2	2	+13	+17.2	26
3	Nice	10	7	3	0	+16	+9.4	24
4	Lille	12	7	3	2	+8	-0.8	24
5	Auxerre	12	6	5	1	+10	+0.7	23
6	Rennes	13	7	1	5	+9	+5.2	22
7	Strasbourg	10	6	3	1	+8	+0.9	21
8	Lyon	10	6	2	2	+9	+6.9	20
9	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
10	Marseille	11	5	4	2	+7	+11.4	19
11	St Etienne	11	5	2	4	+0	-3.4	17
12	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	+0	+4.0	15
13	Lens	11	4	2	5	-2	+4.7	14
14	Montpellier	12	3	3	6	-13	-4.2	12
15	Angers	11	3	2	6	-7	-7.1	11
16	Nantes	10	2	4	4	-3	-1.3	10
17	Reims	12	2	4	6	-6	-5.0	10
18	Le Havre	11	2	0	9	-18	-10.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	8	3	0	+17	+17.7	27
2	Marseille	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.2	27
3	Lens	11	5	4	2	+5	+2.3	19
4	Lille	11	4	5	2	+7	+9.4	17
5	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+4	-0.3	16
6	Nice	12	4	4	4	+1	+3.9	16
7	Angers	12	4	4	4	-1	+0.8	16
8	Monaco	11	4	2	5	+1	+7.0	14
9	Toulouse	10	3	3	4	-2	+2.8	12
10	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	-5.7	12
11	Reims	11	3	3	5	-3	-8.3	12
12	Brest	11	4	0	7	-9	-8.9	12
13	Le Havre	11	3	2	6	-7	-4.7	11
14	Nantes	12	2	5	5	-11	-10.5	11
15	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
16	Rennes	10	1	1	8	-11	-3.4	4
17	Montpellier	10	1	0	9	-18	-12.4	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.