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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

St Etienne

U S T T S

2–3

Full-time

Toulouse

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 27%

24%

30%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

55%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

3,4

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,33 xG 3,21

57% Possession 43%

18 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

0 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match St Etienne 17. · Toulouse 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	25	6	2	+55	+56.5	81
2	Marseille	33	19	5	9	+25	+15.5	62
3	Monaco	33	18	7	8	+26	+40.7	61
4	Nice	33	16	9	8	+19	+18.2	57
5	Lille	33	16	9	8	+15	+10.2	57
6	Strasbourg	33	16	9	8	+13	-7.5	57
7	Lyon	33	16	6	11	+17	+11.1	54
8	Brest	33	15	5	13	-1	-8.4	50
9	Lens	33	14	7	12	-1	+6.1	49
10	Auxerre	33	11	9	13	-1	-14.2	42
11	Rennes	33	13	2	18	+3	+5.6	41
12	Toulouse	33	10	9	14	+0	+10.6	39
13	Angers	33	10	6	17	-19	-18.7	36
14	Reims	33	8	9	16	-13	-19.0	33
15	Nantes	33	7	12	14	-16	-18.5	33
16	Le Havre	33	9	4	20	-32	-22.8	31
17	St Etienne	33	8	6	19	-37	-37.2	30
18	Montpellier	33	4	4	25	-53	-28.0	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	13	2	1	+27	+30.7	41
2	Monaco	17	12	3	2	+22	+25.4	39
3	Strasbourg	16	10	5	1	+14	-1.4	35
4	Nice	16	10	4	2	+17	+16.5	34
5	Lille	16	10	4	2	+12	+2.8	34
6	Brest	17	10	3	4	+10	-1.2	33
7	Lyon	16	10	2	4	+14	+10.0	32
8	Marseille	16	9	4	3	+16	+15.1	31
9	Rennes	17	9	1	7	+8	+5.8	28
10	Auxerre	17	7	6	4	+7	-0.3	27
11	St Etienne	16	6	3	7	-8	-8.1	21
12	Toulouse	17	5	5	7	-2	+2.9	20
13	Lens	16	6	2	8	-7	+6.7	20
14	Nantes	16	4	6	6	-2	-0.2	18
15	Angers	17	5	2	10	-15	-12.6	17
16	Reims	17	4	4	9	-8	-6.1	16
17	Montpellier	17	3	4	10	-24	-6.6	13
18	Le Havre	17	3	2	12	-26	-14.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	12	4	1	+28	+25.8	40
2	Marseille	17	10	1	6	+9	+0.4	31
3	Lens	17	8	5	4	+6	-0.6	29
4	Lille	17	6	5	6	+3	+7.4	23
5	Nice	17	6	5	6	+2	+1.6	23
6	Monaco	16	6	4	6	+4	+15.3	22
7	Lyon	17	6	4	7	+3	+1.0	22
8	Strasbourg	17	6	4	7	-1	-6.1	22
9	Le Havre	16	6	2	8	-6	-8.3	20
10	Toulouse	16	5	4	7	+2	+7.7	19
11	Angers	16	5	4	7	-4	-6.1	19
12	Reims	16	4	5	7	-5	-12.9	17
13	Brest	16	5	2	9	-11	-7.3	17
14	Auxerre	16	4	3	9	-8	-13.9	15
15	Nantes	17	3	6	8	-14	-18.4	15
16	Rennes	16	4	1	11	-5	-0.2	13
17	St Etienne	17	2	3	12	-29	-29.1	9
18	Montpellier	16	1	0	15	-29	-21.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.