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Eredivisie

Referee: D Makkelie

Utrecht

T T U U T

1–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Eredivisie · 28/30 matches

Win Ø 35%

39%

30%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

61%

47%

Both score Ø 57%

61%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

47% Possession 53%

21 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 6. · Nijmegen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	30	24	3	3	+71	75
2	PSV Eindhoven	30	23	2	5	+40	71
3	Feyenoord	30	20	4	6	+40	64
4	Twente	30	18	7	5	+15	61
5	AZ Alkmaar	26	15	3	8	+17	48
6	Utrecht	28	11	8	9	+8	41
7	Vitesse	26	12	3	11	-9	39
8	Groningen	30	9	9	12	-7	36
9	Go Ahead Eagles	30	10	6	14	-9	36
10	Nijmegen	30	9	8	13	-12	35
11	Heerenveen	28	9	7	12	-8	34
12	Heracles	30	9	6	15	-10	33
13	Cambuur	30	10	3	17	-18	33
14	For Sittard	30	8	5	17	-30	29
15	Waalwijk	30	6	10	14	-17	28
16	Zwolle	30	7	5	18	-20	26
17	Willem II	30	7	5	18	-28	26
18	Sparta Rotterdam	30	5	10	15	-23	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	12	1	2	+46	37
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	0	3	+24	36
3	Feyenoord	15	11	2	2	+23	35
4	Twente	15	9	5	1	+13	32
5	AZ Alkmaar	13	9	2	2	+15	29
6	Utrecht	14	7	4	3	+11	25
7	Heracles	15	7	4	4	+3	25
8	Go Ahead Eagles	15	7	1	7	+3	22
9	For Sittard	15	6	2	7	-8	20
10	Groningen	15	4	6	5	-1	18
11	Willem II	15	5	3	7	-7	18
12	Heerenveen	14	5	2	7	-3	17
13	Cambuur	15	5	1	9	-6	16
14	Vitesse	13	5	1	7	-9	16
15	Sparta Rotterdam	15	3	6	6	-7	15
16	Waalwijk	15	4	3	8	-12	15
17	Zwolle	15	3	4	8	-6	13
18	Nijmegen	15	2	5	8	-9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	15	12	2	1	+25	38
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	11	2	2	+16	35
3	Feyenoord	15	9	2	4	+17	29
4	Twente	15	9	2	4	+2	29
5	Nijmegen	15	7	3	5	-3	24
6	Vitesse	13	7	2	4	+0	23
7	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	1	6	+2	19
8	Groningen	15	5	3	7	-6	18
9	Heerenveen	14	4	5	5	-5	17
10	Cambuur	15	5	2	8	-12	17
11	Utrecht	14	4	4	6	-3	16
12	Go Ahead Eagles	15	3	5	7	-12	14
13	Waalwijk	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Zwolle	15	4	1	10	-14	13
15	Sparta Rotterdam	15	2	4	9	-16	10
16	For Sittard	15	2	3	10	-22	9
17	Heracles	15	2	2	11	-13	8
18	Willem II	15	2	2	11	-21	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.