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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Famalicao

U T T U U

3–1

Full-time

Estoril

T T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Famalicao Estoril

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 23%

19%

26%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 54%

55%

52%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

25 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 3

11 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

18 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Famalicao 14. · Estoril 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	31	26	4	1	+59	82
2	Sp Lisbon	31	24	4	3	+42	76
3	Benfica	31	21	5	5	+46	68
4	Sp Braga	31	17	8	6	+20	59
5	Gil Vicente	31	12	12	7	+10	48
6	Guimaraes	31	12	7	12	+4	43
7	Maritimo	31	9	10	12	-3	37
8	Pacos Ferreira	31	9	10	12	-11	37
9	Estoril	31	8	12	11	-4	36
10	Santa Clara	31	8	12	11	-14	36
11	Portimonense	31	9	8	14	-13	35
12	Boavista	31	6	15	10	-14	33
13	Vizela	31	7	11	13	-16	32
14	Famalicao	31	6	12	13	-10	30
15	Arouca	31	6	9	16	-24	27
16	Moreirense	31	6	8	17	-19	26
17	Tondela	31	7	5	19	-23	26
18	Belenenses	31	5	10	16	-30	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+35	41
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+19	37
3	Benfica	16	10	3	3	+21	33
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+13	31
5	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
6	Guimaraes	15	8	2	5	+9	26
7	Gil Vicente	16	5	6	5	+3	21
8	Boavista	16	4	9	3	+0	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	15	5	5	5	-1	20
10	Maritimo	15	4	6	5	+4	18
11	Vizela	16	4	6	6	-5	18
12	Belenenses	15	5	3	7	-13	18
13	Estoril	16	3	8	5	-1	17
14	Famalicao	15	3	7	5	-2	16
15	Portimonense	16	4	4	8	-6	16
16	Moreirense	15	4	3	8	-3	15
17	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15
18	Arouca	15	4	3	8	-15	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	13	2	1	+24	41
2	Sp Lisbon	16	12	3	1	+23	39
3	Benfica	15	11	2	2	+25	35
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+7	28
5	Gil Vicente	15	7	6	2	+7	27
6	Estoril	15	5	4	6	-3	19
7	Maritimo	16	5	4	7	-7	19
8	Portimonense	15	5	4	6	-7	19
9	Guimaraes	16	4	5	7	-5	17
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
11	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
12	Vizela	15	3	5	7	-11	14
13	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
14	Boavista	15	2	6	7	-14	12
15	Tondela	15	3	2	10	-14	11
16	Moreirense	16	2	5	9	-16	11
17	Santa Clara	15	1	6	8	-13	9
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.