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Eredivisie

Referee: J van der Laan

Almere City

T U U T T

0–1

Full-time

Willem II

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

2,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 15%

29%

Points per game

0,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 43%

29%

57%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,4

Conceded

2,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,70 xG 0,35

51% Possession 49%

22 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 1

6 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almere City 17. · Willem II 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+21	+12.4	21
2	Utrecht	6	5	1	0	+5	-1.2	16
3	Twente	7	4	2	1	+8	+9.0	14
4	AZ Alkmaar	6	4	1	1	+5	+6.3	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+7	+5.5	10
6	Feyenoord	6	2	4	0	+6	+6.3	10
7	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	4	1	+1	-1.2	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	1	3	-3	+3.5	10
9	Groningen	7	2	3	2	+2	-3.6	9
10	Heracles	7	2	3	2	-3	-0.6	9
11	Willem II	7	2	2	3	+1	-3.0	8
12	Heerenveen	6	2	1	3	+1	-0.3	7
13	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.7	7
14	Zwolle	7	2	1	4	-3	-4.6	7
15	For Sittard	7	2	1	4	-6	-3.3	7
16	NAC Breda	7	2	0	5	-9	-7.4	6
17	Almere City	7	0	2	5	-16	-5.3	2
18	Waalwijk	7	0	0	7	-16	-8.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.8	9
2	Utrecht	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.3	9
3	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
4	Heerenveen	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.9	7
5	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
6	Willem II	4	2	0	2	+2	-0.2	6
7	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.3	6
8	Zwolle	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
9	Groningen	4	1	2	1	+2	-2.8	5
10	Heracles	4	1	2	1	-1	+0.8	5
11	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	+2	+4.1	4
12	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.8	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
14	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
15	Sparta Rotterdam	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.0	3
16	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.9	3
17	Almere City	4	0	1	3	-12	-2.2	1
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-7	-4.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+12	+6.6	12
2	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
3	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.2	7
4	Utrecht	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.5	7
5	Twente	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.0	6
6	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+2.3	6
7	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
8	Ajax	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.5	4
9	Groningen	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
10	Heracles	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.5	4
11	For Sittard	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.3	4
12	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+0	-3.1	3
13	Willem II	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.8	2
14	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.5	1
15	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
16	Heerenveen	3	0	0	3	-4	-4.2	0
17	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.6	0
18	NAC Breda	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.