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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

Utrecht

T S U S S

3–2

Full-time

Willem II

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 58%

75%

40%

Points per game

2,5

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 68%

75%

60%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,33 xG 0,49

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 3

8 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 3. · Willem II 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+17	+10.2	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.4	13
3	Utrecht	4	3	1	0	+3	-0.1	10
4	Groningen	5	2	3	0	+4	+0.5	9
5	Willem II	5	2	2	1	+4	-1.2	8
6	Twente	5	2	2	1	+2	+8.0	8
7	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+5	+4.3	6
8	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+3.8	6
9	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.4	6
10	Nijmegen	5	2	0	3	+0	-3.2	6
11	For Sittard	5	2	0	3	-4	-1.6	6
12	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	0	3	-4	+0.4	6
13	NAC Breda	5	2	0	3	-6	-3.2	6
14	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	+1	-0.8	4
15	Zwolle	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.3	4
16	Heracles	5	0	3	2	-5	-1.8	3
17	Almere City	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.5	2
18	Waalwijk	5	0	0	5	-13	-8.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.8	9
2	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
3	Willem II	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.8	6
4	Utrecht	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
5	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.3	6
6	Groningen	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.0	5
7	Twente	3	1	2	0	+2	+6.2	5
8	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.5	4
9	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
10	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.2	3
11	Go Ahead Eagles	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
12	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.2	3
14	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
15	Heracles	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.0	2
16	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
17	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-7	-3.0	1
18	Waalwijk	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
2	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.4	6
3	Feyenoord	3	1	2	0	+4	+2.1	5
4	Sparta Rotterdam	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.0	4
5	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
6	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
7	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+0	-3.1	3
8	Twente	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
9	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.1	3
10	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.8	3
11	Willem II	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.0	2
12	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.5	1
13	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
14	Almere City	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.5	1
15	Ajax	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
16	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-3	-3.3	0
17	NAC Breda	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.9	0
18	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.