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Eredivisie

Referee: A Bos

Almere City

U T T T U

1–0

Full-time

Nijmegen

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,1

Scored

0,4

1,1

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,9

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,02 xG 1,96

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almere City 17. · Nijmegen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+23	+13.5	27
2	Utrecht	8	7	1	0	+7	-0.7	22
3	Feyenoord	8	4	4	0	+11	+8.0	16
4	Ajax	7	5	1	1	+10	+10.7	16
5	Twente	9	4	3	2	+7	+10.6	15
6	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.7	13
7	Go Ahead Eagles	9	4	1	4	-4	+5.6	13
8	Willem II	9	3	3	3	+2	-6.3	12
9	NAC Breda	9	4	0	5	-7	-5.9	12
10	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	5	2	+0	+0.7	11
11	For Sittard	9	3	2	4	-5	-0.2	11
12	Nijmegen	9	3	1	5	+1	-3.6	10
13	Groningen	9	2	3	4	-1	-5.4	9
14	Heracles	9	2	3	4	-7	-7.8	9
15	Heerenveen	8	2	2	4	-2	+0.1	8
16	Zwolle	9	2	2	5	-4	-6.7	8
17	Almere City	9	0	3	6	-17	-5.6	3
18	Waalwijk	9	0	1	8	-17	-10.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.5	12
2	Utrecht	4	4	0	0	+4	+2.0	12
3	Ajax	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.0	9
4	NAC Breda	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.4	9
5	Heerenveen	4	2	2	0	+5	+5.2	8
6	Twente	4	2	2	0	+3	+8.1	8
7	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.9	7
8	Nijmegen	5	2	1	2	+2	+0.4	7
9	Willem II	5	2	1	2	+2	-2.1	7
10	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	-1	+4.9	7
11	For Sittard	4	2	0	2	-1	+2.2	6
12	Zwolle	5	2	0	3	-2	-0.8	6
13	Groningen	5	1	2	2	+1	-2.6	5
14	Heracles	5	1	2	2	-2	-2.3	5
15	Sparta Rotterdam	5	0	4	1	-1	+2.6	4
16	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
17	Waalwijk	5	0	1	4	-7	-5.4	1
18	Almere City	5	0	1	4	-13	-0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+13	+8.0	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	3	1	1	+4	+2.6	10
3	Utrecht	4	3	1	0	+3	-2.6	10
4	Feyenoord	5	2	3	0	+8	+4.1	9
5	Twente	5	2	1	2	+4	+2.5	7
6	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.6	7
7	Sparta Rotterdam	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	0	2	-3	+0.7	6
9	Willem II	4	1	2	1	+0	-4.2	5
10	For Sittard	5	1	2	2	-4	-2.3	5
11	Groningen	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.8	4
12	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-5	-5.4	4
13	Nijmegen	4	1	0	3	-1	-4.0	3
14	NAC Breda	5	1	0	4	-9	-5.5	3
15	Zwolle	4	0	2	2	-2	-5.9	2
16	Almere City	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.7	2
17	Heerenveen	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
18	Waalwijk	4	0	0	4	-10	-5.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.