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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Almere City

U T T U T

1–4

Full-time

Nijmegen

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almere City Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 33/32 matches

Win Ø 31%

21%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

48%

72%

Both score Ø 59%

52%

66%

Average goals

2,6

3,5

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,04 xG 3,12

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 11

6 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 7

13 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Almere City 13. · Nijmegen 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	33	28	4	1	+88	+66.3	88
2	Feyenoord	33	25	6	2	+62	+65.9	81
3	Twente	33	20	6	7	+32	+19.0	66
4	AZ Alkmaar	33	19	7	7	+31	+17.0	64
5	Ajax	33	15	10	8	+13	+10.4	55
6	Nijmegen	32	13	10	9	+14	-14.9	49
7	Utrecht	31	12	10	9	+2	-4.5	46
8	Sparta Rotterdam	32	12	7	13	+1	-8.2	43
9	Go Ahead Eagles	31	11	9	11	+1	-6.6	42
10	Heerenveen	33	10	7	16	-16	-6.1	37
11	For Sittard	33	9	10	14	-19	+2.2	37
12	Zwolle	33	9	9	15	-21	-18.2	36
13	Almere City	33	7	13	13	-23	-16.5	34
14	Heracles	33	9	5	19	-33	-26.1	32
15	Waalwijk	33	7	8	18	-16	-10.9	29
16	Excelsior	33	6	11	16	-19	-11.3	29
17	Vitesse	33	6	5	22	-44	-24.0	23
18	Volendam	33	4	7	22	-53	-33.4	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	16	15	1	0	+41	+35.9	46
2	Twente	17	14	1	2	+23	+17.2	43
3	Feyenoord	16	12	3	1	+37	+37.4	39
4	AZ Alkmaar	16	11	2	3	+23	+16.8	35
5	Ajax	17	9	6	2	+18	+12.5	33
6	Nijmegen	16	8	3	5	+10	+0.4	27
7	For Sittard	17	7	6	4	+7	+13.5	27
8	Utrecht	15	7	5	3	+6	+2.2	26
9	Go Ahead Eagles	17	7	4	6	+8	+4.0	25
10	Heerenveen	17	6	3	8	-6	+3.7	21
11	Heracles	16	6	3	7	-10	-7.4	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam	16	5	5	6	-1	+2.1	20
13	Excelsior	17	4	7	6	-1	+4.7	19
14	Waalwijk	17	4	6	7	-5	-1.1	18
15	Zwolle	16	5	3	8	-11	+2.9	18
16	Almere City	16	3	7	6	-9	-5.0	16
17	Vitesse	16	2	5	9	-15	-6.7	11
18	Volendam	16	3	2	11	-27	-9.0	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	13	3	1	+47	+30.4	42
2	Feyenoord	17	13	3	1	+25	+28.4	42
3	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	5	4	+8	+0.2	29
4	Twente	16	6	5	5	+9	+1.8	23
5	Sparta Rotterdam	16	7	2	7	+2	-10.3	23
6	Nijmegen	16	5	7	4	+4	-15.3	22
7	Ajax	16	6	4	6	-5	-2.1	22
8	Utrecht	16	5	5	6	-4	-6.7	20
9	Zwolle	17	4	6	7	-10	-21.1	18
10	Almere City	17	4	6	7	-14	-11.5	18
11	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	5	5	-7	-10.7	17
12	Heerenveen	16	4	4	8	-10	-9.8	16
13	Vitesse	17	4	0	13	-29	-17.4	12
14	Waalwijk	16	3	2	11	-11	-9.8	11
15	Heracles	17	3	2	12	-23	-18.7	11
16	Excelsior	16	2	4	10	-18	-15.9	10
17	For Sittard	16	2	4	10	-26	-11.3	10
18	Volendam	17	1	5	11	-26	-24.5	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.