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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kamphuis

Nijmegen

T T S S T

1–2

Full-time

Heracles

U T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nijmegen Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,5

Scored

1,0

0,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

1,2

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,4

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,68 xG 2,03

65% Possession 35%

21 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

7 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nijmegen 11. · Heracles 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+17	+10.2	15
2	AZ Alkmaar	5	4	1	0	+6	+4.4	13
3	Utrecht	5	4	1	0	+4	+0.7	13
4	Groningen	5	2	3	0	+4	+0.5	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	3	1	+1	-1.7	9
6	Willem II	6	2	2	2	+3	-2.0	8
7	Twente	5	2	2	1	+2	+8.0	8
8	Ajax	4	2	1	1	+5	+4.1	7
9	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.7	7
10	Feyenoord	4	1	3	0	+4	+3.8	6
11	Nijmegen	5	2	0	3	+0	-3.2	6
12	For Sittard	5	2	0	3	-4	-1.6	6
13	NAC Breda	5	2	0	3	-6	-3.2	6
14	Heerenveen	4	1	1	2	+1	-0.8	4
15	Zwolle	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.3	4
16	Heracles	5	0	3	2	-5	-1.8	3
17	Almere City	5	0	2	3	-10	-6.5	2
18	Waalwijk	6	0	0	6	-14	-7.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.8	9
2	Utrecht	3	3	0	0	+3	+1.3	9
3	Ajax	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.0	6
4	Willem II	3	2	0	1	+4	+0.8	6
5	NAC Breda	3	2	0	1	+1	-1.3	6
6	Groningen	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.0	5
7	Twente	3	1	2	0	+2	+6.2	5
8	Heerenveen	2	1	1	0	+4	+2.5	4
9	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	1	1	+0	+2.8	4
10	AZ Alkmaar	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.6	3
11	For Sittard	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.2	3
12	Nijmegen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
13	Zwolle	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.2	3
14	Sparta Rotterdam	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.5	2
15	Heracles	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.0	2
16	Feyenoord	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.7	1
17	Almere City	3	0	1	2	-7	-3.0	1
18	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-5	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	AZ Alkmaar	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.8	10
2	Sparta Rotterdam	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.2	7
3	PSV Eindhoven	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.4	6
4	Feyenoord	3	1	2	0	+4	+2.1	5
5	Groningen	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
6	Utrecht	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
7	Nijmegen	3	1	0	2	+0	-3.1	3
8	Twente	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
9	Go Ahead Eagles	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.1	3
10	For Sittard	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.8	3
11	Willem II	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.8	2
12	Ajax	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
13	Zwolle	3	0	1	2	-2	-4.5	1
14	Heracles	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
15	Almere City	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.5	1
16	Heerenveen	2	0	0	2	-3	-3.3	0
17	NAC Breda	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.9	0
18	Waalwijk	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.